Optimizing the Seattle Mariners Lineup

"100 RBI or bust"

Yeah, I know - you read that headline and all the snark in the world comes to mind. Like, "how about get a hitter?" but since we're slogging through what seems to be an eternity waiting for even a shortened inter-squad game to begin, let's talk lineup.  Specifically, what that lineup ought to look like. 

I'm just spit-balling here, but I'd have to guess that the M's lineup headed into the season might look something like this:

Ichiro
Figgins
Cust
Guti
Smoak
Olivo
Bradley
Ryan
Wilson

There are a lot of interchangeable parts there - but you can probably cement the top two and the bottom two in stone. Cust is almost certainly your #3 hitter, but from there, it's anyone's guess. 

I'm using Bradley instead of Saunders or Gerut or Gross or any other of the dozen options they have in left field specifically so I could use the handy Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool.  This tool will use wOBA (weighted on base average - it uses linear weights to assign a coefficient to every contribution that a batter makes, divided by plate appearances. Neat) and Slugging Percentage to come up with an optimal lineup relative to run production (not run prevention, however - so this isn't a wins above replacement argument, which is a good one when talking about Bradley vs. Saunders vs. Gerut vs. Gross vs. your Aunt Jennie).  Anyway, using any kind of goofy platoon situation in left made it difficult to use the tool, so just go with it. 

To simplify, I used Bill James' projections for the 2011 season (where he actually sees Bradley as more useful than Saunders to begin with, so there's another decent reason to use MB here). Here's what you get - the most optimal lineup for the Mariners, one that will score on average 4.439 runs per game:

Cust
Bradley
Ichiro
Olivo
Smoak
Wilson
Guti
Ryan
Figgins

Yes, Jack Cust, leadoff hitter.

In fact, there are 30 "best lineup" projections and in 23 of them, Jack Cust is the leadoff hitter.  In none of them is the leadoff hitter Ichiro or Figgins.  In 21 scenarios, Ichiro is your #3 hitter. 

What can we take away from this?  Well, that I'd wager my first, second, and third born that we will never, ever see this lineup on the field for the Mariners in 2011, or any season thereafter, or in any alternate universe (just in case Fringe is on to something).  However, it does lend some credibility to the notion that Ichiro is a little bit wasted in that leadoff slot and I have been wondering if Wedge would ever consider a lineup where he's more in a role as run producer than catalyst. 

Good stuff on a cold day to get you thinking about warm days and baseball, no?  Go find other projection systems and use the tool, it's fun.