Friday, April 24, 2009

Thoughts on the Offense.

So the M's are hitting .241 as a team. They're 25th out of 30 teams. Their team OBP is .293. That's DFL, folks. Worst in the league. With an OPS of .645, their team line is starting to resemble an entire lineup of Jose Vidro's.

The offense has been horrible, not even living up to the very lowest of expectations.

Here's a reason to be pessimistic: The pitching is going to regress.

The bullpen has held opposing batters to a .218 AVG, good for 5th in the league and not sustainable at all. They've stranded 76% of base runners, which isn't ridiculous, but probably not sustainable. The fact remains that we have Felix and Bedard as co-#1 starters, and then we have a #5 in Washburn, and nothing else. We simply can't rely on our two-headed monster to go out there and throw gem after gem. They're going to lose some games. And no, we can't expect that Washburn will be good. He's not.

But here's a reason to be optimistic: We're 10-6. Dumb luck? Perhaps. Amazing individual pitching contributions? Yes. Fantastic defense? Assuredly.

But the horrible offense is really why we can get excited.

Do you really believe, in your heart of hearts, that Ken Griffey is going to hit .171 all year? That Beltre will hit .164? That Lopez will hit .196? Gutierrez .191? Save for the hot start by Endy Chavez, the best, it would seem, is yet to come from this offense.

Projections put Griffey in the .245 BA range with a wOBA around .338-.340.
Projections put Beltre in the .265-.275 range with a wOBA around .340
Projections have Lopez in the .280-.285 range with wOBA around .320
Projections have Gutierrez at .265-ish with wOBA around .320

Point is - the hits are coming. These four will regress to their collective means - by and large the heart of the lineup has yet to realize the season has begun. All the while, the pitching has picked up the slack and stuck them smack dab in first place.

So yeah, the pitching has performed above their abilities. The offense has performed below. When the two start to regress, that's when the proverbial rubber will meet the road and we'll see just what kind of team we've got.


Anonymous said...

interesting points. I wonder if the M's will look to add instead of subtract come July.

Dan said...

Tough to know if they should be buyers or sellers!