Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Reality Check

So the M's are a game under .500 as we near the close of the first month.  If I'm being honest, that's really all I hoped they would do - just avoid an April collapse.

Cliff Lee is set to start on Friday and in four short weeks, Erik Bedard will trot out there and see just how good his surgeon is.

But what bugs me is that April's schedule was really a cream puff.  Oakland, Texas, Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago: a combined 52-70 record.  May brings 12 games vs. Tampa and the Angels combined, with a merciful stop in Baltimore and a stretch of Toronto, SD, and Det at home.  May isn't a bear of a schedule, but it's certainly tougher than April.

Their next nine games (after KC) will say a lot about where this team is headed with a home stand featuring three vs. Tex, TB, and the Angels, respectively.  Go 4-5 and you should probably be happy.  6-3 would be sweet. But I really fear a 2-7 and suddenly we're back to talking about "must-wins" in mid-May.

By my count, the Lee/Felix two headed monster will pitch in two games of the Texas series and two games of the TB series, but Anaheim will get out of town without facing either of them.  While it would be nice to beat up on Anaheim, it's entirely possible the M's take two of three from Texas, two of three from Tampa and you're in a position where your 3-5 guys in the rotation just need to eek out one win vs. Anaheim to call it a relatively successful home stand at 5-4.

But whoo-boy wouldn't it be sweet to rattle off a little 7-2 home stand and start raising some eyebrows outside the northwest.  If Vargas and Fister can keep the magic alive, it's certainly not out of the question.

June?  At Mil, StL, and NYY.  May better be awesome for the M's.

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