Monday, March 7, 2011

Seattle Mariners and Addition by Subtraction

You may have read where Miguel Olivo has a strained abductor and is undergoing therapy and there's currently no timetable for his return, but Olivo says he'll be ready for opening day.  If you didn't read that, you can get it here or here or here.

What I find particularly ironic about this development is that if he winds up on the shelf for a significant amount of time, the Mariners will be one of the first franchises in recent memory to be better for losing their big offseason acquisition.

Triple-slash projections for our two catchers (BA/OBP/SLG) from the venerable Bill James:

Adam Moore: .256/.303/.379
Miguel Olivo: .229/.271/.382

How about ZiPS?

Adam Moore: .243/.290/.349
Miguel Olivo: .228/.270/.413

In the James projection, Moore is superior to Olivo and in the ZiPS, they're about a wash.  What I think you can hang your hat on is that we know Olivo is probably going to suck while Moore still occupies that purgatory of "prospect" status while we wait for him to prove he's either Dan Wilson or just a slightly better version of Miguel Olivo.

So from where I'm sitting, I really don't care too much about Olivo's injury.  In fact, take your time Miguel.

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