Friday, February 11, 2011

A Cliff Lee Deal(s) Retrospective

Please be good.
Let's take a look back at what we sent, and what we got, for Cliff Lee, shall we?

So we dealt Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez for Cliff Lee.  And there was great rejoicing. 

Aumont was probably considered the prize in that haul, and while the Mariners had decided he profiled better as a reliever, the Phillies were going to turn him into a starter and many of us gnashed our teeth and muttered "Brandon Morrow all over again".

Well, turns out the Mariners might have been right.  The starter experiment failed - in 11 starts he went 1-6 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.87 WHIP at Reading.  They demoted him to Clearwater (ahem, high A) where he went 2-5 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.607 WHIP and they ultimately turned him back into a reliever.  Yowsa.

Gillies was hurt most of last year and got in only 28 games, mostly at AA.  His totals were a .243 BA with .302 OBP and .336 SLG.  2 HR's and 2 stolen bases.  Yawn.  But he's way better than this, and a lot of listy-types put him in, or on the cusp, of the Phillies top 10 prospects.  He's probably still 2-3 years away though.

Ramirez split time at Clearwater (A) and Reading (AA) with a better line than Aumont, but probably not what the Phillies may have had in mind:  4.82 ERA 142 IP, 152 H, 115 SO, 1.359 WHIP.  He seems to appear in most top-30 lists, and as high as 17 overall Phil prospects.

We then dealt Lee and Lowe for Smoak, Beavan, Lueke, and Lawson.  I'll skip Lowe because I suppose most of you know his schtick.

Smoak: Well, we've already talked about him. He should be pretty good, but he has a lot to prove still.

Beavan usually gets ranked anywhere between 12th and 9th on the prospect list for the M's and will have a pretty legitimate shot at a rotation spot come 2011.  He made two stops in AA and one in AAA last year and overall he posted a 3.90 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, 168 IP, 174 H, 101 K's.  He only walked 21 batters over 168 innings pitched.  He's a strike throwing machine, doesn't miss many bats, and while he may never be a superstar in the league, it's very possible he could be a serviceable #4 starter on a competitive team.  I'll also add that he got hit awfully hard in his time at AAA.

Lueke last year:  63 IP, 48 H, 94 K's, 1.86 ERA with a 1.000 WHIP.  This includes stops at A, AA, and AAA - and he pretty much dominated at every level.  He should be in the bullpen to start the season, whether you think he's a nice guy or not.

Lawson: profiles as kind of a Brendan Ryan type with a tad more power (read - he's actually hit some home runs!).  Between Texas and Seattle AA squads last year, he hit .293/.372/.439 over 527 PA's. He's not afraid to draw a walk, he runs a tad, he also peppered in 9 dingers.  He's apparently quite gifted defensively (2b) as well.  He's 25 this year, so he's not a baby and it's kind of time for him to either do his business or get off the pot, if you will.  I could see him in some kind of utility role with the squad in 2012, and perhaps if things go either really well for him early on or really poorly for the M's early on, he might show up in 2011.

So, objectively, I have to say Cliff Lee was pretty well played for the M's.  Nice work, Jack.

No comments: