- Smoak: 249/.351/.414,19 HR This is sadly probably spot on.
- Ackley: .239/.325/.358, 3 HR Bill James thinks Dustin Ackley is 4 feet tall, apparently.
- Saunders: .242/.315/.388, 10 HR If Saunders gets to the break and he's projecting for this line, it's time to cut the cord.
- Adam Moore: .254/.300/.389, 10 HR Why I couldn't stand Johjima, I have no idea.
- Figgins .277/.360/.348, 3 HR with 32 SB in 146 games. So he thinks he's going to triple his HR output and get hurt.
- Guti: .261/.323/.401, 14 HR Sadly, probably spot on.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Bill James Projections and the Mariners
A few thoughts first.
Bill James, God love him and all with his smart mind and calculator, is considered to be a bit of a hack when it comes to projections. Typically his offensive projections are way too inflated and his pitching projections are far too conservative. Just look at what he predicted Chris Davis was going to do in the 2009 season (I believe he projected him for 41 home runs).
No, these probably aren't going to be accurate
Yes, they're mouth-wateringly interesting because it's November and we're dying for baseball news, so here you go:
I'm not going to bother with Wilson and Milton.
Just for fun: Lance Berkman .275/.393/.486 with 22 HR. Go get him.
Pitchers? Felix: 3.31 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 8.23 K/9. 13 wins.
The rest of the Pitchers? They're all going to suck.
I wonder if we can move the fences in every half inning when the M's are up just to make it a challenge for the other team? Like when you played pick up whiffle ball games with the 5th graders when you were in 3rd grade - just a whole different set of rules so the big boys don't get bored.
Now I'm depressed. I wonder what Richie Sexson is doing?
Posted by Michael at 8:26 AM