Place Your Bets: The Two Brandons

Some of you may have caught the piece on Brandon Morrow over at Rotohardball.  In case you missed it, click here to take a look.  Great work by The Log's own man of mystery, Michael Barr.  Two thoughts on this:

1. The Enigma is a great nickname.  Love it.

2. Mr. Barr failed to mention a little wager we made at Log HQ a little over a year ago.  The bet: Brandon Morrow must throw at least 180 innings AND strike out 200 batters in a single season.  The term of the bet is 10 years.  So if Morrow can throw 180 IP and strikeout 200 just once over the next 9 seasons, I win a frosty adult beverage. 

Morrow's 2010 line: 146 IP, 178 K.  Close, but no cigar.  Or beer in this case.  If he stays relatively healthy he should hit the 180/200 mark in 2011.  Checkout his 2nd half line from 2010: 3.69 ERA, 46.1 IP, 37 H, 19 BB, 1.209 WHIP, 13 K/9.  Wow!

With all of this Morrow talk my mind can't help but wander to the Brandon the Mariners received in return for Morrow.  Brandon League regressed a bit in 2010, but overall had a solid campaign.  His numbers were closer to his career averages than his stellar 2009 season.

Brandon League:
2010: 3.91 FIP, 6.38 K/9, 74 IP, 1.19 WHIP
2009: 3.58 FIP, 9.16 K/9, 79 IP, 1.25 WHIP
Career: 4.19 FIP, 6.72 K/9, 1.30 WHIP
(FIP = Fielding Independent ERA)

Mariner fans can expect another heaping helping of League out of the pen this year.  With David Aardsma on the shelf for a while, League is a likely candidate to get early season save chances.  I have a sneaking suspicion the front office wants to see his star shine as brightly as possible in order to erase any doubts about trading Morrow for him.  If that means saves, and a bigger 2012 contract, so be it.

There is no reason League can't repeat his solid 2010 performance.  But I still have to wonder why, in a rebuilding year, you would ever trade a young starter with a high ceiling for a veteran bullpen arm.  Makes me wonder if Jack Zduriencik, Chuck Armstrong and the rest of the front office wanted to put the Tim Lincecum whining to bed by sending away the most obvious reminder (Morrow) of the team passing on the local phenom in the 2006 draft. 

Here's to a great 2011 campaign for both Brandon's.  I'll have my frosted mug ready in September.

God Given

Talent, that is.

Was it just me, or did it seem like Brandon Morrow was just a little bit pissed off tonight? I'm sure the traditional media will say he was "focused" or "amped" or "pumped up". But from my seat, he looked downright pissed off. Like he'd just had it with his inconsistency. He'd had enough of worrying about his role with this team. Like he realized what gold he's got in that arm and he just blew three batters away.

They didn't have a chance.

He looked like a bona fide stopper.

Now, I realize his value is in the rotation and just about anyone can save 30 games. But regardless, it was a pretty welcome sight to see him come out of the bullpen with a sneer on his face and multiple 100 mph fastballs flying out of his hand. Check the graph, courtesy of Brooks Baseball and Pitch FX - he lived at 98+ save for one pretty wicked slider at 89. Go check out the rest of their awesome graphs to see that he peppered the strike zone with all but one pitch.

I'm no smart-guy-prognosticator, but if this is to be his role this year - then let's let it be this freaking bad ass and perhaps we can build his confidence, come up with a plan for his diabetes, and see if we can translate some of this success into the rotation in the future. But hey, I digress...

Brandon Morrow is a unique talent - and tonight, he just gave a big middle finger to the Tigers. It was an awesome sight.

8-3! Viva Mariners!

Moving On From Morrow Mess

It's too easy to fuel the fire this morning about Brandon Morrow's unfortunately choice to spend his career in the bullpen when his team desperately needs starting pitching. Calmer heads will focus on an unfortunate game that left an all-to-familiar bad taste in the mouths of Mariner fans. With 2 outs and nobody on base, and a 2 run lead, Morrow threw pitch after pitch off the plate in the same location. With no ability to make an adjustment, and no advice from his backstop or dugout that helped, 3 walks in a row and his night and the game fell apart. That is done, and we move on.

Two valuable lessons should be learned from last night:
1. When you have a young starter turned reliever who missed time due to injury and recently had command issues, you don't send him out on an island to fail. Simply put, someone should have been warming up in the bullpen. There is a show of confidence that managers have with established closers that keep them from warming someone up while they are on the hill in the 9th. Morrow has not earned this show of confidence. In addition, ALL of the Mariner arms are rested and ready to go, yet they sat in the bullpen as Morrow gave the game away. Batista didn't help the situation, but by the time Batista came in things were already out of control. Bring him in with runners on 1st and 2nd instead of the bases juiced and it probably would have been a different story.

2. Chuck Meriwether was horrible. He is to blame for the Mariner loss as much as Morrow and Batista.

From the Seattle Times: Bedard gave three runs back in the fifth — two on
Michael Cuddyer's two-out single after plate umpire Chuck Meriwether failed
to call a third strike on a 2-2 pitch down the middle.

Is anyone else tired of seeing pitches thrown belt-high or slightly above called balls? The vertical portion of the strike zone was around 12 inches tall at times last night, while balls off the plate were called strikes. Umpires like Meriwether are calling the game incorrectly. In this case it let the Twins back into the game.

(Photo: AP/Seattle Times)

Morrow Time! (Or...Bye Bye Vidro)

Great to see the M's finally making the move to transition Brandon Morrow BACK into a starting pitcher. Rather than bother with a "what took you so long" rant, the big question mark over this move is why Tacoma? Morrow, even if he only throws 35 pitches, is the Mariner's 2nd best starting pitcher right now. Why not have those innings count? Hopefully the Mariners will get him back up here sooner than later. Makes more sense to have Morrow progress in the bigs and Batista or Silva come in to mop up than watch him waste his talent in AAA.



The Vidro move was long overdue. Although it was entertaining wondering why he was on the team every time he stepped up to the plate.

Time To Make A Rotation Move

If the plan is still to move Morrow into the rotation, why wait? The time is now. The M's should shift Batista into the setup role and let Morrow start building up arm strength. If Morrow isn't ready to go 5 innings, then let them share starts for a while, let Morrow go 3-4 innings, and then bring Batista in for the next 3-4 innings to save the bullpen.

One reason the Mariners may not be willing to make a move now is they are paying the back end of their rotation $28 million a year. That's a lot of cash to lose games. Time to break up the "Three headed 5th Starter" and try to win some ballgames.

A second part of this could be dealing Putz and shifting Batista into the closer role. The Mariners need pitching and hitting. It shouldn't be difficult to get two good young players, or possibly one very good youngster ready to start along with a mid-minors propsect, in return for Putz. The closer position can be filled fairly easily. That's not to say that great closers are easy to find. Putz is a great closer. But when you lose 90+ games how critical is the closer position?

I realize Bavasi and McClaren need to win now, but the team isn't good enough. It's almost like the Mariners are the last ones to realize they should be rebuilding.

If you don't agree, I'd love to hear some other ideas. But first answer this question...what do they have to lose?

Morrow Takes a Seat.

So the M's have reportedly shut down Brandon Morrow for a few days due to what they're calling a "tired shoulder". Shocker. They take a kid, overwork him in the bullpen as a rookie, send him to winter ball to turn him into a starter, and now he's back as a setup guy firing mostly fastballs all spring. He hasn't stopped throwing for a year. I'm tired for his shoulder.

Enjoy your rest, Brandon.

George Sherrill... closer?

Well, now that the deal is officially, finally, mercifully, completed for Erik Bedard, let's turn our attention to an interesting development regarding George Sherrill's arrival in Baltimore.

First off, I really like Sherrill. He always seemed like a down-to-earth kind of guy, he was media friendly, he was humble, and I just love the story of the M's plucking him out of the independent league and letting him develop into one of, if not the best, setup men in the game.

But in the last few days, it has surfaced that Sherrill may be handed the closers job in Baltimore, which has to be exciting for the big guy. I've also spotted fantasy news sources touting the potential for 30-35 saves, low ERA and WHIP, good strikeouts, etc. That he'll be "a steal on draft day" - that kind of typical fantasy baseball blather.

Will George Sherrill make a good major league closer? I don't know. Let's look at his career numbers:

128 IP, 95 H, 60 BB, 138 K's, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .208 BAA. Damn!

But then there are the splits:

vs. Lefties 76 IP, 43 H, 19 BB, 98 K's, .81 WHIP, .167 BAA
vs. Righties 52 IP, 52 H, 41 BB, 40K's, 1.79 WHIP, .261 BAA

Hmm... and mind you, in his role - the righties were probably coming off the bench in late-game situations to face Sherrill. These are the Mike Napoli's not Vlad Guerrero's. He is practically unhittable by lefties, but he is pretty miserable against righties.

In closing situations, he may very well face a steady diet of right handed hitters too.

While I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see Sherrill being real successful as closer there. If Baltimore were smart, they'd let him be a lefty specialist, post his typical ridiculously dominant stats and then peddle him to the Yankees, Mets, RedSox, or some other contender at the deadline for two more shining prospects.

Or just watch - the O's will trade him back to the M's for Brandon Morrow.

McLaren Speaks

The Log caught an interview on KJR this morning with John Lowell McLaren. He sounded upbeated about 2008. In fact he sounded a lot like Mike Hargrove did last year at this time. Nobody believed Grover back then, but much of what he said came true. A few gems from the McLaren interview:

• Brandon Morrow: McClaren is in-step with Norm Charlton in feeling that Morrow was forced into throwing nearly all fastballs last year due to his role in the bullpen. He expects Morrow to compete for a rotation slot this year. He added that Morrow has the opportunity to be a #2 starter in the future. On the surface that is great, except that everyone knows Morrow won't have a shot at a rotation slot unless someone else gets hurt. The Silva signing handcuffs the M's unless they want him to be the highest paid middle RP in baseball. Don't get me wrong, it was great to hear him talk about Morrow in the rotation. Someone will get hurt at some point this year, and Washburn is gone after 2008. But for now he is the best setup man on the staff. It is clear Bavasi did not have a cohesive plan going into the offseason. Everyone knew Bedard and Santana were on the block. Don't blow $44 million on a #4 starter when you already had one (Morrow) and what you need now is a setup man.
• Richie Sexson: The KJR host lured McLaren into guaranteeing that Sexson will win the comeback player of the year award. Whether he wanted to guarantee it or not, it is clear that a .265/40/110 year is desperately needed from Richie this year.
• Felix Hernandez: McClaren spoke about his high expectations for Felix. He is looking for lower pitch counts early and for The Prince (You likey? Let's all agree that King is a bit premature.) to go deeper into games.