Mariners and Pearl Jam Team Up This Summer

Checkout this cool promotion between the Mariners and Pearl Jam guitarist Mike McCready.  McCready will be playing the national anthem before the Mariners take on Tampa Bay on June 3rd.  What's even more interesting is that fans can get a free bobblehead of Seattle's greatest living guitarist if you purchase tickets to the game through this link. 

McCready's performance is in support of the CCFA foundation, a charity he regularly supports.

PJ fans know the band frequently wraps up concerts with Yellow Ledbetter followed by the Star Spanged Banners. Here's a video of them doing just that at their most recent show in Seattle.

Place Your Bets: The Two Brandons

Some of you may have caught the piece on Brandon Morrow over at Rotohardball.  In case you missed it, click here to take a look.  Great work by The Log's own man of mystery, Michael Barr.  Two thoughts on this:

1. The Enigma is a great nickname.  Love it.

2. Mr. Barr failed to mention a little wager we made at Log HQ a little over a year ago.  The bet: Brandon Morrow must throw at least 180 innings AND strike out 200 batters in a single season.  The term of the bet is 10 years.  So if Morrow can throw 180 IP and strikeout 200 just once over the next 9 seasons, I win a frosty adult beverage. 

Morrow's 2010 line: 146 IP, 178 K.  Close, but no cigar.  Or beer in this case.  If he stays relatively healthy he should hit the 180/200 mark in 2011.  Checkout his 2nd half line from 2010: 3.69 ERA, 46.1 IP, 37 H, 19 BB, 1.209 WHIP, 13 K/9.  Wow!

With all of this Morrow talk my mind can't help but wander to the Brandon the Mariners received in return for Morrow.  Brandon League regressed a bit in 2010, but overall had a solid campaign.  His numbers were closer to his career averages than his stellar 2009 season.

Brandon League:
2010: 3.91 FIP, 6.38 K/9, 74 IP, 1.19 WHIP
2009: 3.58 FIP, 9.16 K/9, 79 IP, 1.25 WHIP
Career: 4.19 FIP, 6.72 K/9, 1.30 WHIP
(FIP = Fielding Independent ERA)

Mariner fans can expect another heaping helping of League out of the pen this year.  With David Aardsma on the shelf for a while, League is a likely candidate to get early season save chances.  I have a sneaking suspicion the front office wants to see his star shine as brightly as possible in order to erase any doubts about trading Morrow for him.  If that means saves, and a bigger 2012 contract, so be it.

There is no reason League can't repeat his solid 2010 performance.  But I still have to wonder why, in a rebuilding year, you would ever trade a young starter with a high ceiling for a veteran bullpen arm.  Makes me wonder if Jack Zduriencik, Chuck Armstrong and the rest of the front office wanted to put the Tim Lincecum whining to bed by sending away the most obvious reminder (Morrow) of the team passing on the local phenom in the 2006 draft. 

Here's to a great 2011 campaign for both Brandon's.  I'll have my frosted mug ready in September.

Doug Fister Pulls The String

That looks bad.

Winner of perhaps the dirtiest and/or most suggestive title in Mariner Log history aside, let's talk briefly about Doug Fister and his change-up.

Now, I've been thinking way too much about Doug Fister.  I usually say something mean like "not good" or something of similar ilk.  But it started occurring to me that this team actually needs Doug Fister (I just threw up in my mouth a little).  We really do - we need him to be good.  We need Doug Fister to be a good #4 starter or so, worth about 2 wins (2.9 last year!) in order for this team to be at all competitive (with much luck in other areas, yes).

So with that in mind - I present to you, my cursory glance at Doug Fister.  

First of all, understand Fister's profile of pitches.  He throws an unspectacular 88 MPH fastball, he has a slider, a curve, and a change.  Here's the distribution of how frequently he throws each pitch (2010):

Yes, if you add up the percentages, you don't get 100%.  Gold star for you.  Pitch F/X data always misses a few. 

So Fister relies heavily on his fastball, and his secondary pitch is very much his change.  His K/9 in 2010 actually dropped to a pretty miserable 4.89, but the strikeout really isn't his game.  A lot of his success was in his ability to control the longball as his HR/9 went from 1.62 in 2009 to a stingy .68 in 2010.  For reference, Felix Herndandez had a HR/9 of .61.  So Fister did well last year.

Now, I'm going to get a little geeky on you, so bear with me - but Fister's HR/9 rate versus left handed batters went from 2.29 to .79.  That's from oh-my-God-you're-terrible to wow-you're-pretty-good.  But is it sustainable?  If you're stat-nerdy you'll know what xFIP is - but here's a quick description from the handy hardball times glossary:

FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching.  It's a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. It uses an algorithm plus a league-specific factor to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. Emphasis added by me.

xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. xFIP "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predictor of a pitcher's future ERA.

Okay, now that that's established - Fister's xFIP vs. lefties is pretty out of whack with his ERA at 4.52.  Basically, the math just doesn't buy that he can sustain this level of performance.  Part of it is also, and this is actually pretty significant, that his batting average on balls in play (BABiP) specifically on fly balls (which is the only kind of ball that's going to leave the park) was .094.  The AL League average BABiP on fly balls was .138.  So just by virtue of dumb luck, he's going to regress on how many hits he gives up on fly balls and sure as hell a few of those will leave the yard. 

So, what do you do if you're Doug Fister?

Throw more change ups.

So a little more geekery:  Fister throws his change about 14% of the time.  His change, however, is his best pitch.  His change is 1.69 runs above average (wCH/C).  That puts him in top-15 best changeups in baseball in terms of its value.  Like, more valuable than Sabathia or Halladay or Hamels.  His change is really good.  His curve, by comparison, is horrible at -2.28.

He is frequently going to his slider and his fastball in 2-strike counts, and I'm here to ask Doug Fister to just try going to the change in two strike counts.  Yes, yes, I know you set up your change with your other pitches, but that's for the coaches to figure out - what I'm saying is, Doug Fister, know thyself.

Use your change.  We need you.

Wak The Hell?

The Mariners fired Don Wakamatsu today, amid allegations that he was unable to make the league's worst collection of hitters all have career years at the same time.  When asked for comment, Jose Lopez replied, "Who?" 

More surprising is the news out of Florida, where Ken Griffey Jr has wired a large deposit into the bank account of team president Chuck Armstrong. 

In another startling move, Griffey appointed Mike Sweeney to the post of "Team Head Manager."  Sweeney will attempt to play for the Phillies and fly west in time for a nightcap with the Mariners.  Sweeney released a brief statement explaining his philosophy:  "I have challenged everyone to a nightly fist-fight until we turn this ship around.  I'm starting with the official scorer, working my way through the press box and then into the clubhouse."  Sweeney expressed disbelief when informed that nobody has taken him up on his offer.  The 68 year old team official scorekeeper was unavailable for comment.

Seattle Mariner Theme Songs Reworked

Great article about Mariner theme songs by FOTL (Friend of The Log) Damon Agnos in the Seattle Weekly.  You can find it right here.  Tough to beat Rich Amaral walking to the plate to Sweetwater's "Superstar."  Damon has some great ideas of his own for the current squad. 

Moving On From Morrow Mess

It's too easy to fuel the fire this morning about Brandon Morrow's unfortunately choice to spend his career in the bullpen when his team desperately needs starting pitching. Calmer heads will focus on an unfortunate game that left an all-to-familiar bad taste in the mouths of Mariner fans. With 2 outs and nobody on base, and a 2 run lead, Morrow threw pitch after pitch off the plate in the same location. With no ability to make an adjustment, and no advice from his backstop or dugout that helped, 3 walks in a row and his night and the game fell apart. That is done, and we move on.

Two valuable lessons should be learned from last night:
1. When you have a young starter turned reliever who missed time due to injury and recently had command issues, you don't send him out on an island to fail. Simply put, someone should have been warming up in the bullpen. There is a show of confidence that managers have with established closers that keep them from warming someone up while they are on the hill in the 9th. Morrow has not earned this show of confidence. In addition, ALL of the Mariner arms are rested and ready to go, yet they sat in the bullpen as Morrow gave the game away. Batista didn't help the situation, but by the time Batista came in things were already out of control. Bring him in with runners on 1st and 2nd instead of the bases juiced and it probably would have been a different story.

2. Chuck Meriwether was horrible. He is to blame for the Mariner loss as much as Morrow and Batista.

From the Seattle Times: Bedard gave three runs back in the fifth — two on
Michael Cuddyer's two-out single after plate umpire Chuck Meriwether failed
to call a third strike on a 2-2 pitch down the middle.

Is anyone else tired of seeing pitches thrown belt-high or slightly above called balls? The vertical portion of the strike zone was around 12 inches tall at times last night, while balls off the plate were called strikes. Umpires like Meriwether are calling the game incorrectly. In this case it let the Twins back into the game.

(Photo: AP/Seattle Times)

The Bitch Is Back!

Well almost. Looks like the M's are about to make the 2nd best AL West free agent OF deal of the week. He's no Abreu, but the good news is that Griffey has demanded that Pokey Reese come to Seattle with him in a package deal. His dad says Pokey is the key to a championship.

One thing is certain, it should spice up a spring training otherwise dominated by such riveting questions as: Johjima or Clement? Branyan or Shelton/LaHair? Chavez or Balentin or Morse? Silva or Rowland-Smith?

Gutierrez: Do You See What I See?

A Star? More thoughts on the Putz Deal...

Everyone agrees Franklin Gutierrez is the centerpiece of the deal for 2009 as far as the Mariners are concerned. You'd have to assume Aaron Heilman will get a chance to compete for the closer role. Or maybe even the 5th SP slot if they keep Batista and/or Silva in the bullpen. (Quick note to the M's: PLEASE don't even think about moving Morrow back to the bulpen. Seriously. A team this bad doesn't need a great closer. Toss Batista in there. I really don't care who you put there...just don't do it! PLEASE. Ok, moving on...)

ESPN's Tim Kurkjian described him as a player that Cleveland decided was not good enough to be one of their 3 starting outfielders. This is a team starting Grady Sizemore, Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo in the outfield. Sizemore is an all star. Choo had an OPS of .946 in 317 AB last year, so he would be in the starting mix in most outfields. Francisco is not very good. So maybe the Mariners know something about Gutierrez that Cleveland doesn't. Maybe Cleveland has the wrong take on a kid who has been in their system for years and a professional ballplayer for 8 years. Mabye...but doubtful. What we do know is he is a terrific defender who has shown an inability to excel at the dish at the major and minor league levels. In 807 career AB's Gutierrez has hit .258 with an OPS of .707. Speed? Moderate at best (17 career SB).

A quick glance at his minor league career, which spans many levels and AB: 2314 AB, .281/70/298 (BA/HR/RBI) wth 84 SB. Project those numbers over a 450 AB minor league level season and you get: .281/13/57 with 16 SB and 76 runs. That's in the minors. Things get a little tougher in the bigs.

Minaya Giddy About Deal

While not officially "invited," The Log crashed the Bellagio in search of interesting tidbits at last week's Winter Meetings. Real reporters were everywhere with fancy passes. Baseball officials seemed to be genuinely enjoying themselves. As the event came to a close, Met's GM Omar Minaya held an informal chat session with a couple of reporters on the casino floor. Less than 24 hours after the Putz deal was announced, Minaya at first appeared giddy or even gloaty (yes, new word) on the heels of aquiring one of the best closers in the game and a decent arm in Shawn Green without giving up one important piece of his 2009 team. Minaya seemed to catch himself shortly into the conversation, toning down his excitement and engagement in some good-natured banter about who would get the ball in the 9th inning. Everyone knows it will be Francisco Rodriguez, but Minaya was in a playfull mood, saying that even he didn't know who the closer will be. One thing is for sure, they have two great options.

A quick refresher on the deal:

The Mariners received:
Major Leaguers:
-From the Indians: Franklin Gutierrez
-From the Mets: Outfielder Endy Chavez and reliever Aaron Heilman
Minor Leaguers:
-From the Mets, 1b Mike Carp, right handed pitcher Maikel Cleto, outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and left handed pitcher Jason Vargas.

The Met's received:
From the M's: Putz, Green & Jeremy Reed

The Indians received:
Major Leaguer: From the Met's: RP Joe Smith
Minor Leaguers:
From the M's: infielder Luis Valbuena

At quick glance it is easy to see why Minaya seemed to be walking on air. What a great deal for the Met's in 2009. Time will tell the true value of the minor leaguers involved.

(Photo: AP)

Griffey Doesn't Define Strategy, But Don't Forget History

The Hot Stove League is buzzing with speculation about Ken Griffey Jr. reuniting with the Mariners. Many discussion focus around building for the future or putting fans in the stand with Griffey in 2009. That would be a tough decision for a team with budding young stars who are ready to prove themselves at the big league level. Unfortuantely, the Mariners don't have to worry about that.

While Griffey is not the long-term solution at designated hitter or outfield, he may actually be an improvement over the Mariner alternatives. For a team with a $100+ million payroll, with no real offense to speak of, paying $15 million over 2 years for a veteran power bat can not sink your team. (However, paying $100 million for a trio of pitchers (Silva, Washburn & Batista) who shouldn't even be in the rotation will get you fired.)

If there are better alternatives than Griffey, then by all means the Mariners shoudd go that route. Considering Griffey will put fans in the seats, a better alternative is not pocketing the $5-$8 million a year it should take to sign him. If Griffey doesn't work out, the Mariners are no worse off.

With that said, it is curious that Griffey is so beloved by Mariner fans while the standing of our other two future hall-of-famers is cloudy.

The M's didn't make a real effort to resign ARod. Fans justify booing with the fact that he said he wanted to play for a winner, and then promptly left for a last-place Rangers team. In the middle of those boo's it is easy to forget that any team willing to fork over a $250 million contract to a superstar is committed to winning. Maybe they aren't smart and won't find a way to turn things around, but they want to win. There is no reason to think at that moment that Texas wouldn't have as bright of a near-term future than the Mariners. ARod gave his all for the Mariners and left Seattle the same way every free agent leaves a team he likes: He was offered way more money and his old team didn't care to make a compelling offer.

Randy Johnson catches heat from Mariner fans who say he didn't try in his last season in Seattle. Johnson is the only person who really knows the truth. I suspect Johnson is not capable of doing things at less than 100% intensity. Players play for pride and money (and hopefully to win). Why would he risk his huge free agent payday to try and punish the Mariners for not giving him a big contract extension? Doesn't make sense.

That brings us back around to Griffey, who lived up to his reputation as an immature, spoiled brat in his exit from Seattle. No player in Mariner history has treated the team more rudely than Jr. in his departure. In fact, it isn't even close. Griffey and his father colluded with Cinncinati management to ensure not only that Griffey would be a Red, but that the Red's would pay the lowest price possible for him in order to contend right away. How else can you explain Griffey announcing that he must be traded, and that there is only one team that he will play for? Let's take a trip back in time for a minute, back 9 years ago when the Mariners were trying to unload their franchise player and get young talent in return:

From the Chicago Sun Times, December 1999: CINCINNATI Ken Griffey Sr. agrees with the Cincinnati Reds' decision not to give up Pokey Reese and pull out of trade talks for Ken Griffey Jr.

Reds general manager Jim Bowden abandoned talks with the Mariners last weekend. The Mariners wanted Reese, the Reds' Gold Glove second baseman, in any deal with Cincinnati.

"I totally understand where Jim Bowden is coming from because if I was making the decision, there's no way I'd give up Pokey Reese," Griffey Sr. was quoted as saying in today's editions of the Cincinnati Post.

Really? No way you'd give up Pokey Reese for your own son who was in the prime of his career and on his way to the hall of fame? This was one of the biggest con jobs in Seattle sports history. Much like the David Stern/Clay Bennett thuggary, it was executed in plain sight. Everyone knew what was going on, but nobody could stop it. The commissioner's office refused to do anything about it. So Bowdin and the Griffeys tied Seattle's hands and made the Mariners take the Reds' package for Griffey. In hindsight that wasn't the worst thing in the world, but it happened. Don't forget when it is time to welcome Griffey back to Safeco Field in a Mariner uniform.

Thought I would share one more blast from the past. From the Associated Press, 2/21/02:

SARASOTA, Fla. (AP) _ Infielder Pokey Reese thinks the special treatment that Ken Griffey Jr. gets from the Cincinnati Reds' front office hurts the chemistry in the clubhouse.

Reese, now playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates, said clubhouse spirit and discipline declined after the Reds lost Greg Vaughn to free agency and traded for Griffey in 2000.

"Junior's going to be Junior," Reese was quoted as saying in Thursday' s editions of The Cincinnati Enquirer. "He's going to do his thing, and they are not going to say anything. But it's 25 of us, not one ... I know he's Ken Griffey Jr., but..."

So even the guy hand-picked by the Griffey's and Bowdin as Griffey's key partner to make the Reds contenders was sick of Griffey's antics shortly after his arrival.

The Mariners should sign Griffey if they can't find better value for those dollars. It may be a smart business and baseball decision. But never forget the way Griffey left Seattle. He is not an old friend returning after years away. Griffey plays for Griffey, nobody else.

Stephen Strasburg, Mariner

Has a nice ring to it. 4 games left and the Mariners are 1 game up on Washington for the honor of shelling our $8 million or so to Strasburg. Can't wait to see how they talk themselves out of picking him 1st. Much better to spend that money on Washburn.

Anyway...here's how the last 4 days are shaping up:

Today:
FLA: Sanchez (2-5, 5.57) vs. WAS: Balester (3-6, 4.83)
Washington's 2 hottest hitters, Zimmerman and Guzman, were out with the "flu" yesterday. Guzman is back in the pregame lineup today, but the hard hitting Zimmerman is out again tonight. M's need both of them in there this weekend if the Nationals want a shot at winning a game @PHI.

LAA: Moseley (2-4, 7.15) vs. SEA: Jimenez (0-2, 3.56)
Moseley? Come on. Are they even trying? Another must-lose situation for the Mariners.

Friday-Sunday:
OAK @ SEA
WAS @ PHI

Bedard Business

Have to love the "Entertainment Tonight" style softball coverage MLB teams receive on MLB.com. Checkout the first paragraph of yesterday's Bedard article by Robert Falkoff:

KANSAS CITY -- The bad news for the Mariners is that left-hander Erik Bedard is expected to require six to nine months of rehabilitation following his exploratory shoulder surgery on Sept. 26. The good news is that Seattle is developing a cluster of young starters in the waning days of this season who have the potential to bolster the rotation early next year.

The real news here is that Bedard hasn't pitched since July 4th, and they are finally scheduling elbow surgery for September 26th. Those 2 1/2 months likely mean he will start the season on the DL rather than being ready for spring training. To be fair, medical issues like this are rarely black and white and there are probably legitimate reasons why the team and Bedard waited this long. Had he been able to come back and make a start or two it would have gone a long way to help the Mariners deal him for two buckets of baseballs in the offseason. At this point one bucket seems like a stretch.

The other takeaway from that first paragraph is the "cluster" of young starters the Mariners are developing. Developing into what? Team ERA in August: 5.78. Team ERA in September: 5.40.

The Last Shall Be First

Today's Update:

1st: Mariners: 57-95, .375
2nd: Padres: 58-95, .379
3rd: Nationals: 58-95, 379

Analysis:
The Padres and Nationals, both 3-7 over their last 10 games, kickoff a three game set tonight. Tough to know what to root for there.

The Mariners need to take care of business and drop the series in Oakland. A clean sweep would put them at 11 losses in a row. Just what the doctor ordered. Unfortunately they send Felix to the mound vs Eveland tonight. Big mistake. The key tonight is to have Felix cover home and 1b a few times early. That should ensure an early exit and put the M's on-track for #10.

Morrow Time! (Or...Bye Bye Vidro)

Great to see the M's finally making the move to transition Brandon Morrow BACK into a starting pitcher. Rather than bother with a "what took you so long" rant, the big question mark over this move is why Tacoma? Morrow, even if he only throws 35 pitches, is the Mariner's 2nd best starting pitcher right now. Why not have those innings count? Hopefully the Mariners will get him back up here sooner than later. Makes more sense to have Morrow progress in the bigs and Batista or Silva come in to mop up than watch him waste his talent in AAA.



The Vidro move was long overdue. Although it was entertaining wondering why he was on the team every time he stepped up to the plate.

The Case For Dealing Lopez

Readers of The Log know we are not huge fans of Jose Lopez. His minor and major league track records suggest he will never blossom into a productive major league 2b. There seems to be a general misunderstanding among Mariner fans that Lopez is having a good year. He is not. But he may be having a good enough year to deal him for a decent AAA prospect. If that's the case, the Mariners should consider themselves lucky and make a deal today.

Let's take a peek at Lopez's stats so far: .299/4/29/27/2, with a .309 OBP and .736 OPS. That puts him on pace for: .299/11/80 w/ 74 runs and 5 SB. I'll make the call right now that he will NOT hit .300. He won't even hit .290. His batting average the past 3 years in the 2nd half is .250 with a pitiful OPS of .610. A player with very limited power and no speed who doesn't walk needs to hit .330 to be productive. So unless he turns into Placido Polanco overnight, the Mariners should deal Lopez now before the annual 2nd half swoon starts.

Maybe the rest of the league hasn't noticed what has become a painful reality for Mariner fans: For HR Lopez puts on the board he loses a game with his glove. Let's ignore for a minute all the balls an average fielding 2b would typically get to that Lopez doesn't make a play for, and focus on his inability to simply catch thrown balls or field grounders that share both meaning and velocity. Whether it's a perfectly thrown ball from Beltre to start a double play, or like last night, a grounder with the bases loaded that any major league 2b would have fielded to save 2 runs, he seems incapable of executing plays this team needs to stay in ballgames.

Let's deal Lopez before the rest of the league catches on that he has limited power, no speed and can't field. For a team that needs a little bit of everything, there has to be someone out there willing to part with a AAA+ player that can be part of the 2009 strategy and beyond.

Time To Make A Rotation Move

If the plan is still to move Morrow into the rotation, why wait? The time is now. The M's should shift Batista into the setup role and let Morrow start building up arm strength. If Morrow isn't ready to go 5 innings, then let them share starts for a while, let Morrow go 3-4 innings, and then bring Batista in for the next 3-4 innings to save the bullpen.

One reason the Mariners may not be willing to make a move now is they are paying the back end of their rotation $28 million a year. That's a lot of cash to lose games. Time to break up the "Three headed 5th Starter" and try to win some ballgames.

A second part of this could be dealing Putz and shifting Batista into the closer role. The Mariners need pitching and hitting. It shouldn't be difficult to get two good young players, or possibly one very good youngster ready to start along with a mid-minors propsect, in return for Putz. The closer position can be filled fairly easily. That's not to say that great closers are easy to find. Putz is a great closer. But when you lose 90+ games how critical is the closer position?

I realize Bavasi and McClaren need to win now, but the team isn't good enough. It's almost like the Mariners are the last ones to realize they should be rebuilding.

If you don't agree, I'd love to hear some other ideas. But first answer this question...what do they have to lose?

How The M's Can Win The West

Most baseball minds believe that, unless disaster strikes them, the Angels will win the AL West. The question on a lot of minds is not IF, but by how many games. Nobody can question the edge LAA has offensively. Let's take a second to review the starting lineups:

Figgins, 3b
Matthews, DH/OF
Guerrero, DH/RF
Anderson, LF
Hunter, CF
Kotchman, 1b
Kendrick, 2b
Napoli, C
Aybar, SS

Top reserve bat: Juan Rivera (.310/23/85 in '06), who may get the nod on opening day due to an ankle injury to Matthews. If he played for Seattle, Rivera would be one of the Mariners' top 3 or 4 hitters.

M's:
Ichiro, CF
Lopez, 2b
Ibanez, LF
Beltre, 3b
Wilkerson, RF
Sexson, 1b
Johjima, C
Vidro, DH
Betancourt, SS

Top reserve bat: Hmm...

Assuming Ichiro is better than Figgins, and the backend players are comparable, the real difference in the lineups is LAA putting up Vlad/Anderson/Hunter every day vs the M's Ibanez/Beltre/Sexson (or Wilkerson). Tough to imagine the two teams have nearly identical payrolls. LAA will shell out $109 million this year, while the M's payroll is around $106 million.

Pitching is where the M's invested this offseason, and only injuries to LAA's top two starters (Lackey & Escobar) give them the edge. But the more the rotations are examined, this could be a significant edge.

LAA:

1. Jered Weaver: Can he bounce back from a disappointing 2007? I think he will be a solid #2 this year. But there is always the chance that neither Weaver will live up to their hype.

2. Jon Garland: This deal looks GREAT for the Angels now. Losing Orlando Cabrera hurt, but they would be in big trouble without Garland holding down the #2 slot. The trouble is he isn't much more than a #3 starter on a good team. Maybe a #4.

3. Ervin Santana: Followed up an encouraging 2006 campaign with a 5.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 2007.

The Angels round out their rotation with two replacements for their injured big guns.

4. Joe Saunders: 3 year avg: 4.47 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. Silva's 3 year average is 4.49 ERA, 1.34. Look for the Mariners to give Saunders a $50 million. 4 year deal in the off season.

5. Dustin Moseley: Moseley was 4-3 with a 4.40 ERA in 46 appearances, including eight starts, for the Angels last year in his first full big-league season. Minor league numbers are not terribly impressive.

Kelvim Escobar is likely done for the year.

John Lackey has a strained tricep and won't throw at all for the next 3 weeks. Return is tentatively slated for early May.

Mariner Rotation:

1. Eric Bedard: My favorite quote from Eric Bedard this spring is this gem after his last spring tuneup start: "I didn't have a plan. I just went out there and threw strikes." I guess he's not a big believer in "practice like you play." My 5th grade basketball coach would be appalled. Should we be concerned? Bedard had a 6.06 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in April last year, with the league hitting .291 against him. Expect a mediocre April and a great season.

2. Felix: The waiting is the hardest part. It's not now or never, but if not now, you have to wonder if he will ever emerge as a #1 starter in an M's uniform.

3. Silva: See: Joe Saunders, with upside.

4. Washburn: See: Silva.

5. Batista: Has his moments, but nothing to get excited about.

So when it comes down to it, the M's rotation is 2 high ceiling guys, and 3 others who are all just about identical. Any one could have a good year, but it is more likely that each has a month or two that are above average, and the rest nothing to write home about. The good news for Mariner fans is they have a proven track record and piece together a better rotation than what LAA is putting on the hill.

So what scenarios open the door for the Mariners to win the AL West:
1. Escobar is done for the year. CHECK
2. Lackey doesn't pitch effectively or is out until the All Star Break.
3. Anaheim's bullpen struggles early in the absence of Scott Sheilds. Speaking of Shields, the Angels' setup man is slated to only miss a week. Make that a month and now we have something.
4. No young pitchers step up to fill the voids in the backend of the LAA rotation.
5. Significant offensive injury. Vlad, Anderson, Hunter...one of those guys, or at least Figgins, need to miss significant time.

All of these are possible. But none matter if Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez, and the rest of the Mariner hitters don't step up.

Disaster has already struck the LAA rotation. Now it just needs to spread to the rest of the team. And the M's need to sign Barry Bonds.

McLaren Speaks

The Log caught an interview on KJR this morning with John Lowell McLaren. He sounded upbeated about 2008. In fact he sounded a lot like Mike Hargrove did last year at this time. Nobody believed Grover back then, but much of what he said came true. A few gems from the McLaren interview:

• Brandon Morrow: McClaren is in-step with Norm Charlton in feeling that Morrow was forced into throwing nearly all fastballs last year due to his role in the bullpen. He expects Morrow to compete for a rotation slot this year. He added that Morrow has the opportunity to be a #2 starter in the future. On the surface that is great, except that everyone knows Morrow won't have a shot at a rotation slot unless someone else gets hurt. The Silva signing handcuffs the M's unless they want him to be the highest paid middle RP in baseball. Don't get me wrong, it was great to hear him talk about Morrow in the rotation. Someone will get hurt at some point this year, and Washburn is gone after 2008. But for now he is the best setup man on the staff. It is clear Bavasi did not have a cohesive plan going into the offseason. Everyone knew Bedard and Santana were on the block. Don't blow $44 million on a #4 starter when you already had one (Morrow) and what you need now is a setup man.
• Richie Sexson: The KJR host lured McLaren into guaranteeing that Sexson will win the comeback player of the year award. Whether he wanted to guarantee it or not, it is clear that a .265/40/110 year is desperately needed from Richie this year.
• Felix Hernandez: McClaren spoke about his high expectations for Felix. He is looking for lower pitch counts early and for The Prince (You likey? Let's all agree that King is a bit premature.) to go deeper into games.

Bavasi Jonesing For Bedard

This thing is on again, off again like a well priced dancer on the Vegas strip.

Reports had Jones on a plane to Baltimore to take a physical as part of a blockbuster trade for the M's, and now it seems that he's still in Venezuela and the whole thing might have been terrible translation between the club and the Venezuelan press. If so, that's pretty funny.

Regardless, there's obviously some teeth to this thing beyond the typical aluminum-hat 'net speculation. By most accounts, it looks like the O's are due to receive Jones, Sherrill, and Tillman plus a "fourth player" (when is the last time a PTNL turned out to be any good?) and the only thing holding it up is Peter Angelos himself (which is one giant ego roadblock). Reports have Angelos out of town Monday, so maybe we'll get nibbles of news about what he's thinking tomorrow or Wednesday. If you ask the great underbite himself, Ken Rosenthal, Angelos has or is likely to kill the deal anyway.

So around and around we go. Where's the waitress? Another 8 dollar Heineken!

Assuming it DOES happen, however - let me just go on the record: I started out in favor of this deal a couple months ago. Since when do the M's get to deal prospects for one of the top 5 starters in the AL? But it seemed every day a new reason NOT to do this deal would pop up. They include, in no particular order:

• M's offense was terrible in the 2nd half of 2007. Can they afford to make it worse?
• Dealing for Bedard after giving Silva a huge pile of cash will prove one of two things: 1. M's didn't have a cohesive strategy this off season. No way Bavasi would deal for another starter after spending a pile of cash on a guy who may be worse than Morrow. 2. M's don't believe Morrow is ready to start.
• Why deal Jones, who we have no replacement for, instead of Morrow who would be pushed into the bullpen by a deal anyway? (No clue if Baltimore had any interest in a deal headlined by Morrow...)
• Morrow's development as a player is being damaged by the M's. Why spend months in winter ball getting acclimated to becoming a starter to only be throw into what is likely a setup role for Putzer?
• Ibanez and Wilkerson in the same outfield is going to make the M's pitching worse.
  
• Pitchers hurt all the time. Hitters hurt some of the time.
• Bedard has a couple of good years, and only one great year. However, if he had 2 great years there is no way the O's would deal him just for prospects.
• Is there ANY way we can toss Lopez and Clement into the deal and get Brian Roberts? How great would that be?

If Jones has a mediocre rookie season, and Bedard has an average "Bedard" season in 2009, Bavasi is a genius who sold high. If Bedard gets hurt and Jones puts up a Rookie of the Year quality campaign, this one will go next to Soriano for HoRam as another Bavasi blunder. Tough call.

This deal is not an obvious stinker like the Soriano deal (Congrats to the Braves by the way for resigning Soriano for 2-years, $9 million just as they are about to hand him the ball in the 9th inning. 35+ saves later that deal will look like a bargain.) But it is a risk. So I tip my cap to Bavasi and hope Bedard retires a Mariner great. Hopefully sometime after 2010.

Ahem, that is - if it happens.

What's Good?

I've been reading lately about how the Mariners simply paid the going rate for a good pitcher in today's market as a way of explaining a $48 million dollar contract for Carlos Silva. You know, I don't really have a problem with that in principle - if you want good players, you need to pay what the market calls for, unless you can beg your way into some kind of hometown discount, which is rare.

But I have a problem with the assessment of the notion of "good". What's "good"?

Well, in grading systems - "good" is a B - it's well above average. You're better than the average Joe, but you're not outstanding.

Fortunately, we have a statistic to measure what an average pitcher is, and it controls for what kind of a park you pitch in on any given day - it's called "Adjusted ERA+". If you score 100, you're the exact league average. If you score 110, you're slightly better than average; 90 is slightly below average. Pretty simple.

Examples for you - Paul Byrd, with a 4.59 ERA had an ERA+ of 100. Tim Wakefield, with a 4.76 had an ERA+ of 100. Byrd has the better ERA, but because he pitches in a less-hitter friendly park, his Adjusted ERA+ indicates he's really no better than average - he is Wakefield's equivalent.

Josh Beckett had an ERA+ of 145; Erik Bedard - 146; Danny Haren - 137. They're outstanding. Got it?

So is Carlos Silva "good"? His ERA+ was 103. All things being equal, he's average. Huh. So we're buying average? $48 million dollars for average, not good.

Let's look at the projected Mariner rotation then.

* Felix Hernandez ERA+ 110
* Miguel Batista ERA+ 101
* Carlos Silva ERA+ 103
* Jarrod Washburn ERA+ 100

See a pattern developing? Bill is having a hard time assessing what's good - because according to this, you have yourself exactly one starting pitcher that's better than average.

And that ain't good.