Carlos Silva Trims Down

So word out of the M's luncheon today is that Carlos Silva has lost some weight. More than 20 lbs, according to trainer Rick Griffin - who himself probably weighs about 97 lbs., so you can understand why he thinks that's significant.

Looking at that pic - that only leaves about another 100 lbs. to get him down to playing weight.

I'll believe it when I see it, fat boy.

What's Good?

I've been reading lately about how the Mariners simply paid the going rate for a good pitcher in today's market as a way of explaining a $48 million dollar contract for Carlos Silva. You know, I don't really have a problem with that in principle - if you want good players, you need to pay what the market calls for, unless you can beg your way into some kind of hometown discount, which is rare.

But I have a problem with the assessment of the notion of "good". What's "good"?

Well, in grading systems - "good" is a B - it's well above average. You're better than the average Joe, but you're not outstanding.

Fortunately, we have a statistic to measure what an average pitcher is, and it controls for what kind of a park you pitch in on any given day - it's called "Adjusted ERA+". If you score 100, you're the exact league average. If you score 110, you're slightly better than average; 90 is slightly below average. Pretty simple.

Examples for you - Paul Byrd, with a 4.59 ERA had an ERA+ of 100. Tim Wakefield, with a 4.76 had an ERA+ of 100. Byrd has the better ERA, but because he pitches in a less-hitter friendly park, his Adjusted ERA+ indicates he's really no better than average - he is Wakefield's equivalent.

Josh Beckett had an ERA+ of 145; Erik Bedard - 146; Danny Haren - 137. They're outstanding. Got it?

So is Carlos Silva "good"? His ERA+ was 103. All things being equal, he's average. Huh. So we're buying average? $48 million dollars for average, not good.

Let's look at the projected Mariner rotation then.

* Felix Hernandez ERA+ 110
* Miguel Batista ERA+ 101
* Carlos Silva ERA+ 103
* Jarrod Washburn ERA+ 100

See a pattern developing? Bill is having a hard time assessing what's good - because according to this, you have yourself exactly one starting pitcher that's better than average.

And that ain't good.

The Serenity Prayer Never Seemed So Appropriate

"God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference."

Yeah, I know there's more to that, but this section really seems quite applicable right now.

According to the bizarre under-bite of Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners are really going after Carlos Silva.

I think my feelings on Silva are well known from previous posts. This move makes as much sense as Paris Hilton giving the keynote address at the National Association of Mathematicians Conference. It's asinine. I've seen it described as "retarded" which is a little low-brow for even me, but it applies nonetheless.

And if anyone even utters the notion that once Silva gets the opportunity to work with Mel Stottlemyre, he'll be a new man, I'll honestly vomit all over my keyboard.

Bill, isn't the point to fill holes, not dig them?

"...accept the things I cannot change...serenity...now...please..."