The Milton Bradley Conundrum

So it turns out Milton Bradley is a bad guy.  Shocker of shockers. 

Yeah, we moved him to a friendly (or mildly retarded in some print cases...cough cough, Baker, cough cough) media in Seattle. 

We fans, for the most part gave him a big wet hug upon arrival as he was replacing the dead cow named Carlos Silva and at least Milton Bradley was in no way directly related to Bill Bavasi's ineptitude. 

We put him through the "belief system". 

We sent him to therapy.

We failed.

He failed.

He's busted, and there's not much that anyone can do about it.

The weird situation the M's find themselves in is whether or not they should pay him over $11 million dollars to play or if they should pay him over $11 million dollars to go away.  The questions the M's brass have to answer include a choose your own adventure kind of model:

Can he contribute in a unique way better than another player we currently have?  If no, cut him loose, cut your losses.  After all, what's the point?  If he can't contribute any better than anyone else, why keep the baggage?  If yes, then it creates new questions.

If he can contribute in a unique way, is it in a way that makes this team anywhere close to playoff contention?  The issue here is, if he is say, one win better than any other baby on the farm, or Jody Gerut for that matter, is that one win worth a damn?  Does that make the Mariners a 79 win team instead of 78?  If so, better to give the kids a shot.  If this makes the team an 85 win team versus 84, well then we have some teeth gnashing to do, because who the heck knows if 85 is enough for a wild card slot.

Milton Bradley has zero future in Seattle, and if he's only going to make this team as good, or perhaps a tick better, than any other player with a future in Seattle then it really doesn't make any good sense to keep him around if your team isn't playoff bound. 

Thus, if the answer is "no" I say you still cut your losses.  If yes, then it creates another set of questions.

If he can contribute in a unique way and if he can contribute in a way that makes this team anywhere close to playoff contention, does his presence hurt the public relations of the team?  If no, well, continue on.  If yes, well then it's a matter of degree that probably relates to the answer of #2.  Just how much does the team think he can help them get to the playoffs?

If he can contribute in a unique way and if it's in a way that makes the team close to playoff contenders and it isn't a public relations nightmare because the team is winning, is it worth waiting for the ticking time bomb that is Milton Bradley?  That is, he's going to have an episode.  He has just about everywhere he has been.  How bad that episode is, who knows - but it could be a massive distraction for the team as well as a public relations mess.

Honestly, if I have to look at his situation objectively, I say you keep him around for Spring Training because without question nobody else is going to take him right now and the #1 thing that Milton Bradley will provide in Spring Training is a distraction from Josh Lueke being invited to camp.  Lueke has a future with the Mariners and we've all read his police report a dozen times and you are either comfortable with Josh Lueke or not, but the fact remains that he's likely to make the team and probably be quite good. Having Bradley around will give the yellow journalists out there, and there are many, some fodder to sell rags in their traditional way instead of re-hashing the unfortunate case of Josh Lueke, which simply has not changed since it happened and therefore it's old news.  Bradley presents new news as he's just constantly reinventing himself as a shape-shifting asshole.  If that's how we spend our $11 million dollars, then maybe it's a fine investment for the Spring. 

If Bradley somehow has a monster Spring well then great, the M's can decide if they can move him, cut him,  or if they want to keep him at that time.  But cutting him before that seems like it's just trying to polish up an organizational image that really shouldn't be judged by Milton Bradley as he was the unfortunate answer to an albatross contract that Buzzie's kid should still be embarrassed by.

But my guess is they unload him in a couple weeks.  I guess we'll see.  If they do, I won't cry, but I think it's an opportunity missed.

The Serenity Prayer Never Seemed So Appropriate

"God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference."

Yeah, I know there's more to that, but this section really seems quite applicable right now.

According to the bizarre under-bite of Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners are really going after Carlos Silva.

I think my feelings on Silva are well known from previous posts. This move makes as much sense as Paris Hilton giving the keynote address at the National Association of Mathematicians Conference. It's asinine. I've seen it described as "retarded" which is a little low-brow for even me, but it applies nonetheless.

And if anyone even utters the notion that once Silva gets the opportunity to work with Mel Stottlemyre, he'll be a new man, I'll honestly vomit all over my keyboard.

Bill, isn't the point to fill holes, not dig them?

"...accept the things I cannot change...serenity...now...please..."

So THAT's what a flame-throwing RP is worth

The Braves sending LaRoche to PIT for Mike Gonzalez is a great example of good things happening to those who wait. Those who get antsy and then deal their 2nd most valuable RP for a borderline #5 starter never have a shot at a deal that would bring real value to the team. LaRoche hit 32 homers and drove in 90 runs last season and finished in a tie for seventh in the National League with a .561 slugging percentage.

Gonzalez was better than Soriano last year, so I can't say for sure that ATL would have taken Soriano for LaRoche. Both pitchers have a history of some arm problems. Gonzalez missed the last few weeks of last year with elbow tendinitis. There is a good chance that considering PIT was not willing to do the LaRoche/Gonzo deal a month ago, ATL would have taken Soriano instead of nothing. The fact is the Soriano for Horacio Ramirez deal was horrible when it was made, and now looks like the worst deal of the offseason.

Career Numbers:
Soriano: 171 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 9.32 K/9IP
Gonzalez: 155 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 10.58 K/9IP

2007 Salaries:
Soriano: $1.2 MM, 1 year deal
Gonzalez: $2.35 MM, 1 year deal

To fully enjoy how badly Bavasi was bamboozled, we have to look at the other players involved in these deals.

Career Stats:
LaRoche: 1,267 AB: .274/65/213, .841 OPS, 27 years old
HoRam: 521 IP, 30-22, 1.40 WHIP, 4.13 ERA (.270 BAA), 27 years old
Vidro: 4,257 AB: .301/115/550, .822 OPS, 56 years old (or so it seems)

2007 Salaries:
LaRoche: $3.7 MM (est. based on his arbitration demand)
HoRam: $2.65 MM, 1 year deal
Vidro (what the M's have to pay him): 2 years, $6 MM per year

Keep in mind that LaRoche is coming off a huge year where he hit .285/32/90 w/ .915 OPS.

So to sum it up, the M's have:
Vidro & HoRam for $8.65 MM per year

Instead of having:
LaRoche, Snelling & Fruto for roughly $5 MM per year. But wait you say! That leaves us without a 5th starter! Well I'm willing to bet Bavasi $100 and his cat that he could have gotten a borderline 5th starter for Snelling and Fruto. And just think what he could have gotten for LaRoche. Well, don't think about what he could have gotten. Think about what the league would have paid for a guy with an OPS over .900 that makes only $3.7 MM a year. :o

More insight into the Soriano/HoRam deal here from MLB.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061207&content_id=1754212&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp

That article points out that there is virtually no difference between Soriano and Gonzalez.