Happy Opening Day and Fearless Seattle Mariner Predictions

I'll call today the real opening day for two reasons:  One, because our beloved Mariners finally take the field of course.  Two, because MLB just doesn't know how to throw a party, and they do this every year, scheduling just a handful of games to roll out the season.

Don't get me wrong, yesterday was exciting, but just not "dazzling" in the way that it could be, uniting baseball fans across the nation(s). And despite the fact that the M's are projected by most prognosticators to finish last in the division, it's still an exciting day.  I'm excited. Are you excited? I know you are.

So with all this excitement welling up in my cockles - even the sub-cockles - I give to you my fearless Seattle Mariner Predictions:

Standings: Mariners will finish 1st in the division, that's right, FIRST - but with just 85 wins. All AL West teams struggle to stay over .500 and no single team has a strangle hold on the division until the last week of the season.  Texas becomes the 1996 version of the Seattle Mariners where they're all bat, no pitch, and while they get chicks all aflutter with the longball, Texas winds up leading the league in runs allowed. Anaheim can't complete the Scott Kazmir reclamation project and Fernando Rodney is out as closer by mid-year due to his Bobby Ayala impersonation. Jered Weaver and Dan Haren both are dominant, but their secondary pitching options just don't materialize and injuries to Toriiiiiii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Kendrys Morales are too difficult to overcome. The Athletics actually finish 2nd and I don't want to talk about them any more than I have to.

Eric Bedard wins comeback player of the year, managing 28 starts, winning 14 of them, and having an ERA just north of 3.  He signs multi-year contract with Yankees in the offseason (ahem...sorry).

Felix Hernandez goes on to win 18 games but is bested by Justin Verlander in the Cy Young voting.

Justin Smoak will post a line of .268/28/84 and there will be much rejoicing. He finally shows more than just flashes of that on-base percentage and power machine that everyone was hoping for, and he plays a plus defense at first as well, all adding up to a 4 wins above replacement season.  Girls in the right field bleachers called "Smoakies" come dressed as cigarettes with his number on the filter and the Safeco staff has their first family-friendly controversy on their hand.

Chone Figgins will hit .296 with 85 runs scored and steal 41 bases, play great defense at 3rd, and make everyone happy he'll be around for two more years.

Milton Bradley will play in 142 games, batting .278 with 19 HR and 82 RBI. There's not a single off-field incident to report, although he is thrown out of two games and actually suspended for three for making fun of Tim Tschida's man-boobs.

Adam Moore will emerge as the preferred catcher by the end of May, ultimately hitting .265 with 14 HR and 52 RBI and the M's are fielding offers for Miguel Olivo at the deadline.

Jack Cust will be Jack Cust, and benefit nicely from the right field at SafeCo and post a .245/26/85 line despite striking out 38% of the time.

David Aardsma returns from hip surgery to save 30 games.

Tom Wilhelmsen is lights-out and sells the rights to Warner Bros. to make a movie out of his life for $3 million. Charlie Sheen asks to play Wilhelmsen, but is turned down.

Ichiro has his first season batting under .300, but makes up for it by hitting 18 home runs and stealing 35 bases.

Lastly, Eric Wedge shaves his mustache, honoring the wager that if the Mariners win the division, he'll get rid of that ugly thing.  Ichiro does the honors.  When the Mariners lose in the ALDS to the Twins, everyone will cite the lucky mustache.

Here we go, folks.  Go Mariners.

Miguel Olivo is Jose Lopez

Career stats:

Player A:  .246/.283/.427  BB% 4.1%
Player B:  .266/.297/.400  BB% 3.7%

No, it's not fair to really compare the two since one is a catcher and one is a second baseman, but these two players are free swingers, they hardly ever walk, hardly ever get on base without the benefit of a well struck ball, which turns out to be roughly once every 4 trips to the plate, and it's typically a single.

Player A is Miguel Olivo, our new catcher.  Player B is Jose Lopez, who we were all thrilled to get rid of.

Well, it turns out, he's baaaaa-ack!

$7 mil is a lot to give a guy who is going to struggle to be league average, but I guess what's done is done.  There's not much of anything at all in free agency next year at C, so maybe Jack Z wants to just check the position off his list and move on.

Silver lining?  Rob Johnson is probably finished in Seattle, barring injury.  And Adam Moore has just been put on notice to get his shit together.

Happy Birthday Jose Lopez!

Now get the hell out of Seattle, go to another team, have a career year, and give us all more reasons to swear at you.

P.S. - if you've ever been surprised by a google images search, I really recommend typing in Jose Lopez and see what you get.  Holy Hell.

What is Ben Sheets Worth?

Warning: opinion and reckless speculation follows, not seriously nerdy statistical analysis...

So Ben Sheets apparently is throwing for teams next week. You have to believe the M's will be there, and you have to believe that Jack Z has already spent a good deal of time on the horn with those who represent Sheets.

I don't have any clue how much the M's have left to spend, but what I do know is I don't like having some combination of Snell/Olson/Vargas/Fister/Petit/French/some-dummy rounding out our last two slots in the starting staff.

Ben Sheets hasn't pitched since 2008. His WAR, starting in 2002 through 2008: 3.8, 3.7, 8.0, 3.7, 4.0, 2.2, 4.4. That's pretty darn good. Ben Sheets had his elbow explode after 2008. That's scary.

His value is really tied to how healthy you think the guy will be - because when he's healthy, he's awesome and when he's not, well, you get to pitch Luke French or some-dummy. If you think he'll really hold up for 180 innings, he's probably a 4+ WAR guy, which makes his demand for $12 million bucks pretty fair.

But if you think he's going to be in and out of the rotation with a variety of ailments, give you about 130 Ben-Sheets-quality-innings, then he's probably something in the arena of a 2.5 WAR pitcher, in which case $9 million is probably about as high as anyone should go.

And then there's the whole possibility that he pulls a 2004 out of his ass and is just ridiculously good (10.03 K/9 rate and a 2.65 FIP. Yowsa.).

Jack Z knows and probably loves Ben Sheets. He could really make this rotation feared, and has the potential to push the scales of the AL West heavily into the M's favor.

I don't think the M's have the cash to get him, but I really would love to see him manning that "third #1 starter" slot in the rotation. Felix, Lee, Sheets? Hoo-boy...

Final Bat: What's Left?

Quick post here...

So the M's need one last bat. They could really use someone with an ability to play a couple infield positions and play in the OF. Basically, Billy Hall, but hopefully someone who can make contact.

Who is still available that might be worth a damn?

Rumor from Jon Morosi is the M's have expressed interest in Fernando Tatis, which honestly reminds me of Pat Gillick-esque moves. Somehow, Tatis has managed to be a 1.5 WAR player the last couple of years despite playing average to poor defense in the OF and infield. Little power, few walks, but he puts the ball in play. Meh.

Chad Tracy. Oft-injured but can play 1b and 3b fairly well according to UZR/150. Can also play the OF. He had big enough years to command a pretty hefty contract after 2005, but then he wound up getting dinged up every year thereafter. He'd have to be practically free to be worth a shot, say - minor league deal with invitation to camp.

LaRoche - his agent is horrible and signed for 4-5 mil with the Dbacks.

Hank Blalock - should never play a defensive position. A DH with health issues. He's a 29 year old Russ Branyan.

Ryan Garko - a poor fielding 1b. Right handed (a plus for this team). Horrible outfielder. Really, should be a platoon at DH vs. left handed bats. This team could use that, but I don't think they have the roster flexibility to carry him.

Kevin Millar - no.

Felipe Lopez - here's a guy that was 4.6 WAR last year, who probably can be counted on for a 2.0-2.5 WAR season in 2010 who plays plus defense at 2b, can give you innings at 3b (I'm going to assume he can play 1b), and historically has logged a couple in the OF, although I'm sure it's not his natural position. He wouldn't sign here without a job, so it would be one of those move-Jose-Lopez-to-Mars deals, but I'm pretty surprised this guy is still without a job. He is a type-B though, so there's that.

There are other names, but yeesh - the pickens are getting slim.

Starting to think the M's might be better off spending on a SP and go dumpster diving for the utility role. If it's Tatis, then so be it.

Bavasi Jonesing For Bedard

This thing is on again, off again like a well priced dancer on the Vegas strip.

Reports had Jones on a plane to Baltimore to take a physical as part of a blockbuster trade for the M's, and now it seems that he's still in Venezuela and the whole thing might have been terrible translation between the club and the Venezuelan press. If so, that's pretty funny.

Regardless, there's obviously some teeth to this thing beyond the typical aluminum-hat 'net speculation. By most accounts, it looks like the O's are due to receive Jones, Sherrill, and Tillman plus a "fourth player" (when is the last time a PTNL turned out to be any good?) and the only thing holding it up is Peter Angelos himself (which is one giant ego roadblock). Reports have Angelos out of town Monday, so maybe we'll get nibbles of news about what he's thinking tomorrow or Wednesday. If you ask the great underbite himself, Ken Rosenthal, Angelos has or is likely to kill the deal anyway.

So around and around we go. Where's the waitress? Another 8 dollar Heineken!

Assuming it DOES happen, however - let me just go on the record: I started out in favor of this deal a couple months ago. Since when do the M's get to deal prospects for one of the top 5 starters in the AL? But it seemed every day a new reason NOT to do this deal would pop up. They include, in no particular order:

• M's offense was terrible in the 2nd half of 2007. Can they afford to make it worse?
• Dealing for Bedard after giving Silva a huge pile of cash will prove one of two things: 1. M's didn't have a cohesive strategy this off season. No way Bavasi would deal for another starter after spending a pile of cash on a guy who may be worse than Morrow. 2. M's don't believe Morrow is ready to start.
• Why deal Jones, who we have no replacement for, instead of Morrow who would be pushed into the bullpen by a deal anyway? (No clue if Baltimore had any interest in a deal headlined by Morrow...)
• Morrow's development as a player is being damaged by the M's. Why spend months in winter ball getting acclimated to becoming a starter to only be throw into what is likely a setup role for Putzer?
• Ibanez and Wilkerson in the same outfield is going to make the M's pitching worse.
  
• Pitchers hurt all the time. Hitters hurt some of the time.
• Bedard has a couple of good years, and only one great year. However, if he had 2 great years there is no way the O's would deal him just for prospects.
• Is there ANY way we can toss Lopez and Clement into the deal and get Brian Roberts? How great would that be?

If Jones has a mediocre rookie season, and Bedard has an average "Bedard" season in 2009, Bavasi is a genius who sold high. If Bedard gets hurt and Jones puts up a Rookie of the Year quality campaign, this one will go next to Soriano for HoRam as another Bavasi blunder. Tough call.

This deal is not an obvious stinker like the Soriano deal (Congrats to the Braves by the way for resigning Soriano for 2-years, $9 million just as they are about to hand him the ball in the 9th inning. 35+ saves later that deal will look like a bargain.) But it is a risk. So I tip my cap to Bavasi and hope Bedard retires a Mariner great. Hopefully sometime after 2010.

Ahem, that is - if it happens.

Last Chance For Felix?

With pitchers and catchers reporting in a few weeks I was flipping through some old Sporting News Fantasy Baseball Owners Manuals, recognized as a premier publication for annual projections and player analysis. On the surface the only thing connecting fantasy baseball with the real are stats. However predicting performance is similar in MLB as it is in the fantasy world. Performance projections are everything when a GM is evaluating his roster for the upcoming season. So it struck me how nobody, not even Felix himself, is able to project with any confidence how the crown jewel in the Mariner's rotation will perform in 2008.

Let's take a step back and look how the last few years have gone. After Hernandez's 2005 debut (12 G, 84.1 IP, 4-4, 77K, 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), here is what the writers at TSN projected the last two offseasons:

2006: The teenager has superstar stuff and a mental toughness that belies his
lack of experience. He throws hard (98 MPH) and has a terrific curveball
and a tantalizing changeup. His strikeout-to-walk-ratio is already solid
and will get even better. Nine of his 12 starts were quality starts.
Bottom Line: King Felix already is a No. 2 (fantasy starter) with upside.
Projected 2006 fantasy value: $20.

2006 Result: 191 IP, 12-14, 176 K, 4.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Actual fantasy value: $13.

2007: Hernandez's first full season in the majors wasn't what fantasy owners had
hoped for, though he was much more effective once June arrived. He
harnessed his command in his last six starts (four walks) and at times looked
like a premier power pitcher. Bottom Line: Still not a king, but will inch
closer to power in '07. Projected 2007 fantasy value: $14.

2007 Result: 190.1, 14-7, 165 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Actual fantasy value not available yet.

2008: All I was able to dig up is that TSN has Felix ranked as the 28th best starter in baseball for 2008. Last year that was equal to a projected fantasy value around $17. Or about 15% less than they thought he would be worth two years ago.

2008 is a make or break year for Felix in the sense that he could slip back into 2006 form, or take a step forward towards becoming a #1 starter. He's very young, so that's not to say he will never develop into a top starter if he doesn't do it in 2008. But how long can someone tread water with a WHIP pushing 1.40 and still be considered a team's number one starter? (If your name is Barry Zito the answer is 3-4 seasons.) If he regresses the Hernandez situation will start to smell more and more like Freddy Garcia. And I don't mean just the stench of the bar at Jalisco's. Felix is more exciting to watch than Freddy Garcia ever was. But another mediocre season and his act will tire just as Garcia's did.

So THAT's what a flame-throwing RP is worth

The Braves sending LaRoche to PIT for Mike Gonzalez is a great example of good things happening to those who wait. Those who get antsy and then deal their 2nd most valuable RP for a borderline #5 starter never have a shot at a deal that would bring real value to the team. LaRoche hit 32 homers and drove in 90 runs last season and finished in a tie for seventh in the National League with a .561 slugging percentage.

Gonzalez was better than Soriano last year, so I can't say for sure that ATL would have taken Soriano for LaRoche. Both pitchers have a history of some arm problems. Gonzalez missed the last few weeks of last year with elbow tendinitis. There is a good chance that considering PIT was not willing to do the LaRoche/Gonzo deal a month ago, ATL would have taken Soriano instead of nothing. The fact is the Soriano for Horacio Ramirez deal was horrible when it was made, and now looks like the worst deal of the offseason.

Career Numbers:
Soriano: 171 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 9.32 K/9IP
Gonzalez: 155 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 10.58 K/9IP

2007 Salaries:
Soriano: $1.2 MM, 1 year deal
Gonzalez: $2.35 MM, 1 year deal

To fully enjoy how badly Bavasi was bamboozled, we have to look at the other players involved in these deals.

Career Stats:
LaRoche: 1,267 AB: .274/65/213, .841 OPS, 27 years old
HoRam: 521 IP, 30-22, 1.40 WHIP, 4.13 ERA (.270 BAA), 27 years old
Vidro: 4,257 AB: .301/115/550, .822 OPS, 56 years old (or so it seems)

2007 Salaries:
LaRoche: $3.7 MM (est. based on his arbitration demand)
HoRam: $2.65 MM, 1 year deal
Vidro (what the M's have to pay him): 2 years, $6 MM per year

Keep in mind that LaRoche is coming off a huge year where he hit .285/32/90 w/ .915 OPS.

So to sum it up, the M's have:
Vidro & HoRam for $8.65 MM per year

Instead of having:
LaRoche, Snelling & Fruto for roughly $5 MM per year. But wait you say! That leaves us without a 5th starter! Well I'm willing to bet Bavasi $100 and his cat that he could have gotten a borderline 5th starter for Snelling and Fruto. And just think what he could have gotten for LaRoche. Well, don't think about what he could have gotten. Think about what the league would have paid for a guy with an OPS over .900 that makes only $3.7 MM a year. :o

More insight into the Soriano/HoRam deal here from MLB.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061207&content_id=1754212&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp

That article points out that there is virtually no difference between Soriano and Gonzalez.