Mariners Represented on James' Top Pitchers Duels for 2011

Mariner fans enjoyed 3 of the top 21 pitching duels in 2011, according to Bill James.  James just published his list of the 100 best pitchers duels of 2011 on ESPN's Grantland site. 

The August 31, 2011 battle between Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren ranked 19 on the list.  From the Grantland article:

Hernandez pitched a five-hitter, struck out nine, but the Angels manufactured a run against him in the third, and Haren made it stand up until the bottom of the eighth. He got two out in that inning and then Scioscia pulled him after two singles, and a Mariner rookie with a windmill swing doubled them home off the reliever. Seattle 2, Angels 1.

2011 performances by Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Michael Pineda also made the list.

Happy Opening Day and Fearless Seattle Mariner Predictions

I'll call today the real opening day for two reasons:  One, because our beloved Mariners finally take the field of course.  Two, because MLB just doesn't know how to throw a party, and they do this every year, scheduling just a handful of games to roll out the season.

Don't get me wrong, yesterday was exciting, but just not "dazzling" in the way that it could be, uniting baseball fans across the nation(s). And despite the fact that the M's are projected by most prognosticators to finish last in the division, it's still an exciting day.  I'm excited. Are you excited? I know you are.

So with all this excitement welling up in my cockles - even the sub-cockles - I give to you my fearless Seattle Mariner Predictions:

Standings: Mariners will finish 1st in the division, that's right, FIRST - but with just 85 wins. All AL West teams struggle to stay over .500 and no single team has a strangle hold on the division until the last week of the season.  Texas becomes the 1996 version of the Seattle Mariners where they're all bat, no pitch, and while they get chicks all aflutter with the longball, Texas winds up leading the league in runs allowed. Anaheim can't complete the Scott Kazmir reclamation project and Fernando Rodney is out as closer by mid-year due to his Bobby Ayala impersonation. Jered Weaver and Dan Haren both are dominant, but their secondary pitching options just don't materialize and injuries to Toriiiiiii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Kendrys Morales are too difficult to overcome. The Athletics actually finish 2nd and I don't want to talk about them any more than I have to.

Eric Bedard wins comeback player of the year, managing 28 starts, winning 14 of them, and having an ERA just north of 3.  He signs multi-year contract with Yankees in the offseason (ahem...sorry).

Felix Hernandez goes on to win 18 games but is bested by Justin Verlander in the Cy Young voting.

Justin Smoak will post a line of .268/28/84 and there will be much rejoicing. He finally shows more than just flashes of that on-base percentage and power machine that everyone was hoping for, and he plays a plus defense at first as well, all adding up to a 4 wins above replacement season.  Girls in the right field bleachers called "Smoakies" come dressed as cigarettes with his number on the filter and the Safeco staff has their first family-friendly controversy on their hand.

Chone Figgins will hit .296 with 85 runs scored and steal 41 bases, play great defense at 3rd, and make everyone happy he'll be around for two more years.

Milton Bradley will play in 142 games, batting .278 with 19 HR and 82 RBI. There's not a single off-field incident to report, although he is thrown out of two games and actually suspended for three for making fun of Tim Tschida's man-boobs.

Adam Moore will emerge as the preferred catcher by the end of May, ultimately hitting .265 with 14 HR and 52 RBI and the M's are fielding offers for Miguel Olivo at the deadline.

Jack Cust will be Jack Cust, and benefit nicely from the right field at SafeCo and post a .245/26/85 line despite striking out 38% of the time.

David Aardsma returns from hip surgery to save 30 games.

Tom Wilhelmsen is lights-out and sells the rights to Warner Bros. to make a movie out of his life for $3 million. Charlie Sheen asks to play Wilhelmsen, but is turned down.

Ichiro has his first season batting under .300, but makes up for it by hitting 18 home runs and stealing 35 bases.

Lastly, Eric Wedge shaves his mustache, honoring the wager that if the Mariners win the division, he'll get rid of that ugly thing.  Ichiro does the honors.  When the Mariners lose in the ALDS to the Twins, everyone will cite the lucky mustache.

Here we go, folks.  Go Mariners.

New Mariners Ads Are Up - Slogan Hysterically Stupid.

Seattle Mariners, "Ready to Play". It's almost as ridiculous as the slogan from the mid 80's "Hit it again".  I mean, well, 'duh'.  That they're 'Ready to Play' doesn't inspire visions of historic achievement, but after being one of the worst teams in the history of baseball, I guess you need to take baby steps, eh?

But putting that aside, the M's have their new crop of ads out - available on MLB.com - and you really have to hand it to Kevin Martinez, Jim Copacino and whomever else may have pitched in - they do some pretty funny ads year to year. I particularly liked "Encore" with Felix although I had to watch it twice because I was mesmerized by the size of Eric Wedge's stomach on first watch. I also thought the "Painful" one was well executed, and registered on the "had to be said" level in addressing just how bad 2010 was.  Well done.

That said, I hope to never see Fister's acting career once he leaves baseball.  My God, how uncomfortable does he look in that commercial?

The one thing that always makes me a little nervous is each year you watch these ads and you know with certainty that several of the featured players won't be around by the end of the season. I mean, how hard was it to watch that Ryan Rowland Smith ad from last year knowing that he was in AAA?  I watch these and wonder which commercial will be obsolete first.  My bet - it's the Fister/Vargas one. Something's gotta give there.

But head over and take a look and talk them up or down in the comments or over at the Facebook page - I'm interested to hear what you all think.

Go M's.

Felix Hernandez Contract Negotiations

Now that the dust is settling on what looks like a 5 year, $78 million deal with Felix Hernandez, you have to wonder if the M's had the guts to bring up the elephant in the room:  Felix's Pants.  With big bucks invested in Felix the time is now to require pants that stop at the top of the shoe, instead of below the cleats.  Time for The King to get his big boy clothes and put those twisted ankles behind him.  After all, he has a team to carry for the next five years.

Starter

Felix = yay
Cliff Lee = yay
Hyphen = uh, woo?

Then what?

Some very nice analysis over at Lookout Landing has the M's offense at about 40+ runs over last year's squad, which is just hoo-boy-dandy. But I continue to be real worried about who is going to toe the mound every 4th and 5th day.

Ryan Rowland-Smith is a lovely pitcher, but let's be honest with ourselves: if we can eek a 4.20 FIP out of the guy, we should be pretty happy. That's not bad, but when you have two giant TBA's behind him in the rotation, I'm not sure it's good enough.

If you can take a Doug Fister and replace him with a Bedard, Sheets, Wang, Myers, Davis, Smoltz, Pedro??? it allows Hyphen to become your #4 starter, and all of the AAAA guys can fight over the last spot in the rotation as they did pretty much all of last season (Vargas, Olson, French, Fister, Snell, etc.).

I doubt seriously that Smoltz or Pedro would sign here. Myers would have to come cheap because he's a health question and a major asshole. Wang, obvious health questions - but damn if his splitter/sinker wouldn't be well suited to this defensive-oriented team. Davis, kind of a Washburn prototype, just a tad better. Bedard and Sheets really emerge to me as the best investments due to their obvious upside(s).

Felix, Lee, Hyphen, Snell, Fister is not a rotation that will win the AL West with the offense we currently have. We need a guy to slot into that #3 hole.

Do it, Jack.

The Last Shall Be First

Today's Update:

1st: Mariners: 57-95, .375
2nd: Padres: 58-95, .379
3rd: Nationals: 58-95, 379

Analysis:
The Padres and Nationals, both 3-7 over their last 10 games, kickoff a three game set tonight. Tough to know what to root for there.

The Mariners need to take care of business and drop the series in Oakland. A clean sweep would put them at 11 losses in a row. Just what the doctor ordered. Unfortunately they send Felix to the mound vs Eveland tonight. Big mistake. The key tonight is to have Felix cover home and 1b a few times early. That should ensure an early exit and put the M's on-track for #10.

McLaren Speaks

The Log caught an interview on KJR this morning with John Lowell McLaren. He sounded upbeated about 2008. In fact he sounded a lot like Mike Hargrove did last year at this time. Nobody believed Grover back then, but much of what he said came true. A few gems from the McLaren interview:

• Brandon Morrow: McClaren is in-step with Norm Charlton in feeling that Morrow was forced into throwing nearly all fastballs last year due to his role in the bullpen. He expects Morrow to compete for a rotation slot this year. He added that Morrow has the opportunity to be a #2 starter in the future. On the surface that is great, except that everyone knows Morrow won't have a shot at a rotation slot unless someone else gets hurt. The Silva signing handcuffs the M's unless they want him to be the highest paid middle RP in baseball. Don't get me wrong, it was great to hear him talk about Morrow in the rotation. Someone will get hurt at some point this year, and Washburn is gone after 2008. But for now he is the best setup man on the staff. It is clear Bavasi did not have a cohesive plan going into the offseason. Everyone knew Bedard and Santana were on the block. Don't blow $44 million on a #4 starter when you already had one (Morrow) and what you need now is a setup man.
• Richie Sexson: The KJR host lured McLaren into guaranteeing that Sexson will win the comeback player of the year award. Whether he wanted to guarantee it or not, it is clear that a .265/40/110 year is desperately needed from Richie this year.
• Felix Hernandez: McClaren spoke about his high expectations for Felix. He is looking for lower pitch counts early and for The Prince (You likey? Let's all agree that King is a bit premature.) to go deeper into games.

Last Chance For Felix?

With pitchers and catchers reporting in a few weeks I was flipping through some old Sporting News Fantasy Baseball Owners Manuals, recognized as a premier publication for annual projections and player analysis. On the surface the only thing connecting fantasy baseball with the real are stats. However predicting performance is similar in MLB as it is in the fantasy world. Performance projections are everything when a GM is evaluating his roster for the upcoming season. So it struck me how nobody, not even Felix himself, is able to project with any confidence how the crown jewel in the Mariner's rotation will perform in 2008.

Let's take a step back and look how the last few years have gone. After Hernandez's 2005 debut (12 G, 84.1 IP, 4-4, 77K, 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), here is what the writers at TSN projected the last two offseasons:

2006: The teenager has superstar stuff and a mental toughness that belies his
lack of experience. He throws hard (98 MPH) and has a terrific curveball
and a tantalizing changeup. His strikeout-to-walk-ratio is already solid
and will get even better. Nine of his 12 starts were quality starts.
Bottom Line: King Felix already is a No. 2 (fantasy starter) with upside.
Projected 2006 fantasy value: $20.

2006 Result: 191 IP, 12-14, 176 K, 4.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Actual fantasy value: $13.

2007: Hernandez's first full season in the majors wasn't what fantasy owners had
hoped for, though he was much more effective once June arrived. He
harnessed his command in his last six starts (four walks) and at times looked
like a premier power pitcher. Bottom Line: Still not a king, but will inch
closer to power in '07. Projected 2007 fantasy value: $14.

2007 Result: 190.1, 14-7, 165 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Actual fantasy value not available yet.

2008: All I was able to dig up is that TSN has Felix ranked as the 28th best starter in baseball for 2008. Last year that was equal to a projected fantasy value around $17. Or about 15% less than they thought he would be worth two years ago.

2008 is a make or break year for Felix in the sense that he could slip back into 2006 form, or take a step forward towards becoming a #1 starter. He's very young, so that's not to say he will never develop into a top starter if he doesn't do it in 2008. But how long can someone tread water with a WHIP pushing 1.40 and still be considered a team's number one starter? (If your name is Barry Zito the answer is 3-4 seasons.) If he regresses the Hernandez situation will start to smell more and more like Freddy Garcia. And I don't mean just the stench of the bar at Jalisco's. Felix is more exciting to watch than Freddy Garcia ever was. But another mediocre season and his act will tire just as Garcia's did.

What's Good?

I've been reading lately about how the Mariners simply paid the going rate for a good pitcher in today's market as a way of explaining a $48 million dollar contract for Carlos Silva. You know, I don't really have a problem with that in principle - if you want good players, you need to pay what the market calls for, unless you can beg your way into some kind of hometown discount, which is rare.

But I have a problem with the assessment of the notion of "good". What's "good"?

Well, in grading systems - "good" is a B - it's well above average. You're better than the average Joe, but you're not outstanding.

Fortunately, we have a statistic to measure what an average pitcher is, and it controls for what kind of a park you pitch in on any given day - it's called "Adjusted ERA+". If you score 100, you're the exact league average. If you score 110, you're slightly better than average; 90 is slightly below average. Pretty simple.

Examples for you - Paul Byrd, with a 4.59 ERA had an ERA+ of 100. Tim Wakefield, with a 4.76 had an ERA+ of 100. Byrd has the better ERA, but because he pitches in a less-hitter friendly park, his Adjusted ERA+ indicates he's really no better than average - he is Wakefield's equivalent.

Josh Beckett had an ERA+ of 145; Erik Bedard - 146; Danny Haren - 137. They're outstanding. Got it?

So is Carlos Silva "good"? His ERA+ was 103. All things being equal, he's average. Huh. So we're buying average? $48 million dollars for average, not good.

Let's look at the projected Mariner rotation then.

* Felix Hernandez ERA+ 110
* Miguel Batista ERA+ 101
* Carlos Silva ERA+ 103
* Jarrod Washburn ERA+ 100

See a pattern developing? Bill is having a hard time assessing what's good - because according to this, you have yourself exactly one starting pitcher that's better than average.

And that ain't good.