Time To Make A Rotation Move

If the plan is still to move Morrow into the rotation, why wait? The time is now. The M's should shift Batista into the setup role and let Morrow start building up arm strength. If Morrow isn't ready to go 5 innings, then let them share starts for a while, let Morrow go 3-4 innings, and then bring Batista in for the next 3-4 innings to save the bullpen.

One reason the Mariners may not be willing to make a move now is they are paying the back end of their rotation $28 million a year. That's a lot of cash to lose games. Time to break up the "Three headed 5th Starter" and try to win some ballgames.

A second part of this could be dealing Putz and shifting Batista into the closer role. The Mariners need pitching and hitting. It shouldn't be difficult to get two good young players, or possibly one very good youngster ready to start along with a mid-minors propsect, in return for Putz. The closer position can be filled fairly easily. That's not to say that great closers are easy to find. Putz is a great closer. But when you lose 90+ games how critical is the closer position?

I realize Bavasi and McClaren need to win now, but the team isn't good enough. It's almost like the Mariners are the last ones to realize they should be rebuilding.

If you don't agree, I'd love to hear some other ideas. But first answer this question...what do they have to lose?

What's Good?

I've been reading lately about how the Mariners simply paid the going rate for a good pitcher in today's market as a way of explaining a $48 million dollar contract for Carlos Silva. You know, I don't really have a problem with that in principle - if you want good players, you need to pay what the market calls for, unless you can beg your way into some kind of hometown discount, which is rare.

But I have a problem with the assessment of the notion of "good". What's "good"?

Well, in grading systems - "good" is a B - it's well above average. You're better than the average Joe, but you're not outstanding.

Fortunately, we have a statistic to measure what an average pitcher is, and it controls for what kind of a park you pitch in on any given day - it's called "Adjusted ERA+". If you score 100, you're the exact league average. If you score 110, you're slightly better than average; 90 is slightly below average. Pretty simple.

Examples for you - Paul Byrd, with a 4.59 ERA had an ERA+ of 100. Tim Wakefield, with a 4.76 had an ERA+ of 100. Byrd has the better ERA, but because he pitches in a less-hitter friendly park, his Adjusted ERA+ indicates he's really no better than average - he is Wakefield's equivalent.

Josh Beckett had an ERA+ of 145; Erik Bedard - 146; Danny Haren - 137. They're outstanding. Got it?

So is Carlos Silva "good"? His ERA+ was 103. All things being equal, he's average. Huh. So we're buying average? $48 million dollars for average, not good.

Let's look at the projected Mariner rotation then.

* Felix Hernandez ERA+ 110
* Miguel Batista ERA+ 101
* Carlos Silva ERA+ 103
* Jarrod Washburn ERA+ 100

See a pattern developing? Bill is having a hard time assessing what's good - because according to this, you have yourself exactly one starting pitcher that's better than average.

And that ain't good.