47% of ESPN Experts Pick The M's

ESPN's panel of experts have chimed in on the AL West. 9 out of 19 isn't too shabby! Almost a coin toss among the ESPN crew. None of the 10 experts that picked the Angels have the Mariners slated to win the wild card, sticking with conventional wisdom that only one team from the west will advance. One vote for Bedard for Cy Young.

Play Ball!

How The M's Can Win The West

Most baseball minds believe that, unless disaster strikes them, the Angels will win the AL West. The question on a lot of minds is not IF, but by how many games. Nobody can question the edge LAA has offensively. Let's take a second to review the starting lineups:

Figgins, 3b
Matthews, DH/OF
Guerrero, DH/RF
Anderson, LF
Hunter, CF
Kotchman, 1b
Kendrick, 2b
Napoli, C
Aybar, SS

Top reserve bat: Juan Rivera (.310/23/85 in '06), who may get the nod on opening day due to an ankle injury to Matthews. If he played for Seattle, Rivera would be one of the Mariners' top 3 or 4 hitters.

M's:
Ichiro, CF
Lopez, 2b
Ibanez, LF
Beltre, 3b
Wilkerson, RF
Sexson, 1b
Johjima, C
Vidro, DH
Betancourt, SS

Top reserve bat: Hmm...

Assuming Ichiro is better than Figgins, and the backend players are comparable, the real difference in the lineups is LAA putting up Vlad/Anderson/Hunter every day vs the M's Ibanez/Beltre/Sexson (or Wilkerson). Tough to imagine the two teams have nearly identical payrolls. LAA will shell out $109 million this year, while the M's payroll is around $106 million.

Pitching is where the M's invested this offseason, and only injuries to LAA's top two starters (Lackey & Escobar) give them the edge. But the more the rotations are examined, this could be a significant edge.

LAA:

1. Jered Weaver: Can he bounce back from a disappointing 2007? I think he will be a solid #2 this year. But there is always the chance that neither Weaver will live up to their hype.

2. Jon Garland: This deal looks GREAT for the Angels now. Losing Orlando Cabrera hurt, but they would be in big trouble without Garland holding down the #2 slot. The trouble is he isn't much more than a #3 starter on a good team. Maybe a #4.

3. Ervin Santana: Followed up an encouraging 2006 campaign with a 5.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 2007.

The Angels round out their rotation with two replacements for their injured big guns.

4. Joe Saunders: 3 year avg: 4.47 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. Silva's 3 year average is 4.49 ERA, 1.34. Look for the Mariners to give Saunders a $50 million. 4 year deal in the off season.

5. Dustin Moseley: Moseley was 4-3 with a 4.40 ERA in 46 appearances, including eight starts, for the Angels last year in his first full big-league season. Minor league numbers are not terribly impressive.

Kelvim Escobar is likely done for the year.

John Lackey has a strained tricep and won't throw at all for the next 3 weeks. Return is tentatively slated for early May.

Mariner Rotation:

1. Eric Bedard: My favorite quote from Eric Bedard this spring is this gem after his last spring tuneup start: "I didn't have a plan. I just went out there and threw strikes." I guess he's not a big believer in "practice like you play." My 5th grade basketball coach would be appalled. Should we be concerned? Bedard had a 6.06 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in April last year, with the league hitting .291 against him. Expect a mediocre April and a great season.

2. Felix: The waiting is the hardest part. It's not now or never, but if not now, you have to wonder if he will ever emerge as a #1 starter in an M's uniform.

3. Silva: See: Joe Saunders, with upside.

4. Washburn: See: Silva.

5. Batista: Has his moments, but nothing to get excited about.

So when it comes down to it, the M's rotation is 2 high ceiling guys, and 3 others who are all just about identical. Any one could have a good year, but it is more likely that each has a month or two that are above average, and the rest nothing to write home about. The good news for Mariner fans is they have a proven track record and piece together a better rotation than what LAA is putting on the hill.

So what scenarios open the door for the Mariners to win the AL West:
1. Escobar is done for the year. CHECK
2. Lackey doesn't pitch effectively or is out until the All Star Break.
3. Anaheim's bullpen struggles early in the absence of Scott Sheilds. Speaking of Shields, the Angels' setup man is slated to only miss a week. Make that a month and now we have something.
4. No young pitchers step up to fill the voids in the backend of the LAA rotation.
5. Significant offensive injury. Vlad, Anderson, Hunter...one of those guys, or at least Figgins, need to miss significant time.

All of these are possible. But none matter if Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez, and the rest of the Mariner hitters don't step up.

Disaster has already struck the LAA rotation. Now it just needs to spread to the rest of the team. And the M's need to sign Barry Bonds.

Morrow Takes a Seat.

So the M's have reportedly shut down Brandon Morrow for a few days due to what they're calling a "tired shoulder". Shocker. They take a kid, overwork him in the bullpen as a rookie, send him to winter ball to turn him into a starter, and now he's back as a setup guy firing mostly fastballs all spring. He hasn't stopped throwing for a year. I'm tired for his shoulder.

Enjoy your rest, Brandon.

G Blows For Batista

Couldn't resist posting this. Photo courtesy of our friends a the Seattle Times. Batista needs a new nickname...how about Little Saxy?

Shawn Green, Calling it a Career

Yeah, this has nothing to do with the M's, but it feels kind of weird for Shawn Green to be retiring (and he's two months younger than me for crying out loud).

From a baseball fan and a fantasy baseball perspective, I've always had kind of a love/hate relationship with him. Here's a skinny white kid who can hit 49 home runs, drive in 125 runs, and swipe two dozen bags. He had a stretch with Toronto and the Dodgers that was just silly. I could run the official numbers, but I'd bet his OPS between '98 and '02 was about .930. He hit better than 40 home runs three times, drove in 100 or more runs four times, stole 20 or more bases four times, and scored over 100 runs four times. That's just insane production over five years.

And then in 2003, it was pretty much over. He's always been able to get on base (hey, maybe he could guest coach for the M's this spring and teach them how to do that), but his tremendous power would only come in little fits and his wheels all but disappeared. He became human, and that's when I started referring to him as Sham Green.

But I really do have to say it seems weird for the guy to retire. Maybe it's because we're the same age. Maybe it's because he's one of the better outfielders of my generation. Maybe it's because I've always been impressed he took off Yom Kippur during a pennant race.

Whatever the case, in his prime, he was among the elite and was tremendously entertaining to watch hit. He finishes with a career .283/.355/.484 line including 328 HR's, 1070 RBI, and 162 stolen bases. Not too shabby.

Nice career, Shawn. Have fun at home with your kids. And your $100 million dollars.

Couldn't Happen to a Nicer Ex-Mariner

...who disparaged the organization and the town after he left disgraced by his .064 batting average.

Okay, I really don't wish this on anyone, but I guess I just don't really feel sorry for him. I mean, you're a millionaire (with a really stupid red patch of chin hair and a crappy, crappy-ass band). Call a freaking cab!



Who can watch this video without laughing out loud when Spiezio walks up to the microphone like Mr. Tough Guy? What an ego-maniac. His wife might be hot, but at least he's a horrible musician and almost as bad on the diamond.

George Sherrill... closer?

Well, now that the deal is officially, finally, mercifully, completed for Erik Bedard, let's turn our attention to an interesting development regarding George Sherrill's arrival in Baltimore.

First off, I really like Sherrill. He always seemed like a down-to-earth kind of guy, he was media friendly, he was humble, and I just love the story of the M's plucking him out of the independent league and letting him develop into one of, if not the best, setup men in the game.

But in the last few days, it has surfaced that Sherrill may be handed the closers job in Baltimore, which has to be exciting for the big guy. I've also spotted fantasy news sources touting the potential for 30-35 saves, low ERA and WHIP, good strikeouts, etc. That he'll be "a steal on draft day" - that kind of typical fantasy baseball blather.

Will George Sherrill make a good major league closer? I don't know. Let's look at his career numbers:

128 IP, 95 H, 60 BB, 138 K's, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .208 BAA. Damn!

But then there are the splits:

vs. Lefties 76 IP, 43 H, 19 BB, 98 K's, .81 WHIP, .167 BAA
vs. Righties 52 IP, 52 H, 41 BB, 40K's, 1.79 WHIP, .261 BAA

Hmm... and mind you, in his role - the righties were probably coming off the bench in late-game situations to face Sherrill. These are the Mike Napoli's not Vlad Guerrero's. He is practically unhittable by lefties, but he is pretty miserable against righties.

In closing situations, he may very well face a steady diet of right handed hitters too.

While I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see Sherrill being real successful as closer there. If Baltimore were smart, they'd let him be a lefty specialist, post his typical ridiculously dominant stats and then peddle him to the Yankees, Mets, RedSox, or some other contender at the deadline for two more shining prospects.

Or just watch - the O's will trade him back to the M's for Brandon Morrow.

McLaren Speaks

The Log caught an interview on KJR this morning with John Lowell McLaren. He sounded upbeated about 2008. In fact he sounded a lot like Mike Hargrove did last year at this time. Nobody believed Grover back then, but much of what he said came true. A few gems from the McLaren interview:

• Brandon Morrow: McClaren is in-step with Norm Charlton in feeling that Morrow was forced into throwing nearly all fastballs last year due to his role in the bullpen. He expects Morrow to compete for a rotation slot this year. He added that Morrow has the opportunity to be a #2 starter in the future. On the surface that is great, except that everyone knows Morrow won't have a shot at a rotation slot unless someone else gets hurt. The Silva signing handcuffs the M's unless they want him to be the highest paid middle RP in baseball. Don't get me wrong, it was great to hear him talk about Morrow in the rotation. Someone will get hurt at some point this year, and Washburn is gone after 2008. But for now he is the best setup man on the staff. It is clear Bavasi did not have a cohesive plan going into the offseason. Everyone knew Bedard and Santana were on the block. Don't blow $44 million on a #4 starter when you already had one (Morrow) and what you need now is a setup man.
• Richie Sexson: The KJR host lured McLaren into guaranteeing that Sexson will win the comeback player of the year award. Whether he wanted to guarantee it or not, it is clear that a .265/40/110 year is desperately needed from Richie this year.
• Felix Hernandez: McClaren spoke about his high expectations for Felix. He is looking for lower pitch counts early and for The Prince (You likey? Let's all agree that King is a bit premature.) to go deeper into games.

What Brian Roberts and Carrie-Anne Moss have in common

What could those two possibly have in common? Turns out not much. But in my world, I have far-fetched fantasies about both. One has to do with baseball, and the other has more to do with showing up at my doorstep with that Matrix leather body suit on. I'll allow you to figure out who is who.

But seriously - there are ridiculous rumors out there about B.R. being part of some M's deal involving Bedard. I know the rumors are completely wild and wholly unsubstantiated, but why can't we at least dream, nay - PRAY - that somehow all the holdup with this Bedard deal is because:

Brian Roberts will soon be a Mariner

Yes, I recognize that's just pure fantasy. But what a team that would be...

This deal has gone from Jones, Sherrill, and Tillman only to those three plus another top prospect to it's current incarnation of a five player deal for Bedard. As such, it has certainly raised some "M's getting fleeced" eyebrows, especially in context of the package for Santana (yes, I know all the arguments about cost and years of control, blah, blah, blah). So what stops the M's from tossing in a guy like Yung Chi Chen (or hell, give them Lopez) to net Bedard and Roberts?

Well, the answer is probably "reality". But this is a blog, it's not the New York Times. So allow a fellow to dream...

Would I rather have B.R. at second or Carrie-Anne Moss on my doorstep in The Matrix leather body suit with those bedroom eyes, pouty lips, and milky white skin? I can't really say.

But I'm pretty convinced I won't have the choice. Reality freaking sucks.

How to properly trade with the Orioles

Mr. Angelos, I have an offer for the Orioles for Erik Bedard. Let me outline the background and terms for your consideration.

1. It is an extremely fair offer.
2. Okay, who am I kidding, it is monstrously lopsided towards your team, but I guess you understand the desperate situation we're in right now.
3. Before there is any agreement with your "general manager" - you will, of course, have final say.
4. By the way, you really do have a lovely Mercedes S-class sedan. I didn't know they made cars with more than 600 horsepower. Wow.
5. We will, of course, allow you to subject all of the players involved to a rigorous physical prior to completion of the trade. I will put this in writing.
6. If any one of the players happen to speak of the trade to the media, I will publicly reprimand them.
7. In fact, if any one of the players talks about the trade before completion, I will attempt to ruin their week - perhaps hang the trade over their head without resolution or prevent them from playing in an important game, or maybe even miss witnessing their first born child walk for the first time.
8. If any one of the players fails to meet the physical to your satisfaction, you have the authority to void the trade or request a new player.
   
9. In fact, should one of the players involved fail the physical, because of your time lost, I will force them to sell crackerjacks at our single-A affiliate in Appleton, Wisconsin wearing a skirt and a t-shirt that reads, "I am a failure and I wasted the time of a millionaire".
10. Mr. Angelos, I can tell that you're already unhappy with these terms, so let me just include another player to be named later - any player of your choice, your call.
11. Can I just say that you're looking particularly healthy these days?
12. If, after the trade is agreed upon and Adam Jones takes the field and you are unhappy with his performance during the first week, you can request Bedard back.
    
13. In fact, if you're unhappy with anything about Adam Jones - his attitude, the way he wears his stirrups, or even his facial hair, call me - we'll work something out.
14. If you agree to this trade, you will drink Starbucks for free for the rest of your natural life.
15. If you agree to this trade, your children and your children's children will have unlimited Nintendo games for their respective lifetimes.
16. Mr. Angelos, I can see that you are great and wise and I hope you find the terms of this deal acceptable.

- Bill